TigerSoft and Peerless Daily
Hotlines
(C) 1985-2015 William Schmidt, Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com
All rights strictly reserved.
---> To renew this Hotline, order here $350 (check) -$360(Visa/MC)
First, TWO IMPORTANT NOTICES:
Look for an email today or Sat night from us
giving the new address.
------ San Diego Tiger User Group Meeting This Saturday. -----------------------
|
Free
San Diego Tiger Users' Group Meeting Saturday, October 3: 12:45 - 4:00 PM La Jolla Coco's Special Topics: "Is The Market 'Correction' Coming to An End? Is There Much More Downside?" What Peerless Market History and Indicators Are Telling Us Now. Should We Be Covering Our Many Lucrative Shorts of Bearish 'MINCP's? |
A Guide To Profitably Using The
Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction
to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless
Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2014
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal.
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different
Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
Peerless Signals and
DJI Charts - version 7/4/2013
1965 1965-6
1966 1966-7
1967 1967-8
1968 1968-9
1969
1969-70 1970
1970-1
1971
1971-2
1972 1972-3
1973 1973-4
1974
1974-5 1975
1975-6
1976 1976-7
1977
1977-1978
1978
1978-79
1979 1979-80
1980 1980-1
1981 1981-2
1982 1982-1983
1983 1983-1984
1984
1984-1985
1985
1985-1986
1986 1986-1987
1987 1987-8
1988
1988-9 1989
1989-90
1990
1990-1 1991
1991-2 1992
1992-3 1993
1993-4 1994
1994-5 1995
1995-1996 1996
1996-7
1997
1997-8 1998
1998-1999 1999
1999-2000 2000
2000-1 2001
2001-2 2002
2002-3
2003 2003-4
2004 2004-5
2005 2005-6
2006 2006-7
2007 2007-8
2008 2008-9
2009
2009-10
2010 2010-11
2011 2011-12
2012
2012-2013
Documentation for TigerSoft
Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable
support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY
Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized
Signals.
Additional HELP links -
http://tigersoftware.com/555HL555/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------Current Tiger Hotline Pages -------
http://www.tigersoft.com/HLZA15/
(bookmark)
Please go to these pages.
Comments:
10/1/2015
The Sell S14 has not been reversed and the DJI has not yet tested
its closing low of August at 15666. I think the bears are still in
control; the number of new lows and MINCP stocks are 11 times
the number of new highs and MAXCP stocks. Today, the DJI could
not manage a follow-through rally.
Still, the short-term trend must be considered
UP. We see lots
of short-term Red Stochastic Buys, too. But Closing Powers
are still falling and the Tiger Day Traders' Indicators are quite
bearish on all the major ETFs. So the present rally should be
limited. It may not extend even through Monday, the worst day of the
week, especially in Bear Markets. Traders will no doubt fret this
weekend that we may be about to see another of the many October
sell-offs or "massacres". And if the DJI fails to get past 16500 on this
rally
and then breaks down
below 16000, it will be completing a bearish
Continuation Head and
Shoulders pattern. That would almost certainly
lead to new closing
lows.
I doubt if the Fed, Wall Street's protector, can do much now to prevent the
continuing weakness in Commodities and Foreign Markets. They certainly
seem powerless at giving the majority of American consumers new
credit or increased buying power. So the European Deflation and
Recessionary Contagion elsewhere must hurt big American
multi-nationals and blue-chips. Every day we see new lay-offs in the
hundreds and thousands announced, it seems. Speculation that there
might not be a rate hike until next March did help dividend stocks today.
But this is too defensive a market to be bullish, I would say. Stick with
our
shorts in the weakest Bearish MINCPs. They seem to decline every day.
9/30/2015
The operative Peerless signal is still the Sell S14. The DJI
may still have to re-test its August closing low at 15666.
Since 1999, the first two weeks of October have tended to bring
declines.
But short-term I think we have to expect the blue chip DJI-30,
SP-500 and NASDAQ rally to continue. I do not expect it
to be able to reach its falling 65-dma. So, I would still hold short
the Bearish MINCPs and IWM if you are trading on an
intermediate-term basis.
The DJI
has rebounded from the round-number 16000 support.
This is also a recovery from the Hourly DJI's 2.3% lower band
below its 147-hour (21-day). The strongest resistance I reckon will
be between16600 and 16800 where the last big reversal took place.
The Hourly OBV Line is actually now running stronger than
price. This will help the DJI short-term to continue its rally
even though the Daily OBV Line and 21-day ma of Unadjusted
NYSE Up Volume minus Down Volume remain in downtrends.
The short-term trend is UP.
9/29/2015 The DJI
is bouncing up this morning up from the round-number,
short-term support at 16000. The Hourly DJI chart suggests
that this average will continue to bounce around between
16000 and 16600.
But will even a 4% DJI rally help the rest of the market?
It will help the SP-500 and the NASDAQ. A rally tomorrow
will help make it seem that they may have successfully tested their
August lows.
But most other stocks' problems run deeper. After all, we
have no new Peerless Buy signal. So more than a short-term 4% rise is
unlikely. The NYSE and the Russell-2000 are much weaker than
the DJI. They may soon be declining again. And the DJI
rally may not last very long. either. The Big Banks remain suspiciously
weak. So stay short IWM and lots of Bearish MINCP stocks.
9/28/2015
The Sell S14 has not been reversed. Look for the DJI and the other
averages
to make nominal new closing lows below their August closing lows. At that
point
bullish divergences may produce a new Peerless buy signal on the DJI.
The DJI is testing its near-term support of 16000. It fell 1.52% (313)
today.
The NASDAQ and Russell-2000 fell twice as much. Very often, we
see the DJI falling proportionally more at bottoms. In such cases we can discern
then
that confidence is truly shaken and a selling climax is probably at hand.
(This
argues against viewing the decline to 18000 as a bottom.)
There was no particular news explaining why selling was so heavy today.
Usually, a selling climax occurs on bearish news that has been anticipated
by market professionals. (This argues against viewing the decline to
18000 as a bottom.)
When we look back at past cases where there were
7x
more NYSE decliners
than advancers with the DJI down 11% or more,
as was true today, we see
that there there are
60% more cases where such
action warned of a deeper decline
than where it was signaling that
a bottom was occurring.
(This argues against viewing the decline to 18000 as a bottom.)
With both Opening and Closing Power falling, I would stay short IWM
even though it has now fallen 7 straight days. We are way ahead with most
of the Bearish MINCP short sales. As long as their Closing Power
lines are
falling we will stay short them. Seasonality and heavy Down Volume remain
bearish. The pundits and "talking heads" seem way to complacent.
Again,
we saw weakness in the big banks. They are not making 12-month lows
yet, but their action and the additional declines in biotechs today are quite
bearish. (This argues against viewing the decline to 18000 as a bottom.)
9/25/2015
The DJI appears locked in a narrow trading range between 16000 and 16600.
It could bounce around at these levels another two weeks while many of our
bearish MINCP stocks keep falling. Stay short IWM, but not DIA.
At the end of a bull market, it is very common for the DJI to hold up while
much of the rest of the market weakens. (This is why our S9s, S12s and
S15s
work so well.) We can't rush the DJI into joining the other falling
stocks.
This has become a defensive and Blue-Chip favored market. It will be
difficult
to make money on the long side until there has been a test of the lows AND
NYSE Up Volume becomes much more dominant. Only 15% of the 6000
stocks we get each night are now above their 65-dma. So, there is
lots of resistance overhead and since Down Volume remains much greater than Up
Volume, it's unlikely that the 65-dma will even be reached.
In the past, a market correction has not run its course until the 21-day
ma of unadjusted
NYSE Up Volume minus Down Volume has stopped falling. The falling A/D Line
now
sends the same cautionary message. We also want to be careful about being
fooled
by opening strength. The Tiger Day Traders' Tool's 21-day ma is still
falling
and the DIA's Closing Power trendline is still pointing down.
9/24/2015
Just as the DJI could not close above its upper
2.5% band a week ago,
today it could not fall below the 16000 round number support
or its lower 2.5% band.
Certainly very short-term traders will want to start scalping using
these narrow bands, but Peerless is after bigger gains,
and our study of the DJI since 1928 shows that we want to
be very careful at this time of year when the DJI is below
a falling 65-dma about buying prematurely. IWM continues
to look like it should be held short. DIA is just a "yo-yo" toy
being played by the big banks' computers. QQQ looks
good short-term. It is counter-attacking the bears.
Its Closing Power is rising and benefiting from a short-term
5-day Stochastic.
Expect the rally to fail above 16500. The OBV Lines for the big
indexes like the OEX and SP-500 show that daily volume remains weak
and mostly (red) bearish. Look also at the 6-month charts of IBB (biotechs),
FAS (big banks) or SOXL (semi-conductors. These are the natural
leaders in a bull market. In each of their cases, the red down-days' volume is
much greater than the blue up-days' volume. Without them
participating in a market advance, it seems unlikely
it can carry very far.
9/23/2015
The "Four Horses of the Deflationary Apocalypse
weakened
again today. This shows the drying up of world consumer demand
and raises the question of just who will the American multinationals
that make up the bulk of the big general market ETFs sell to. With
the DJI up so much because of the artificial stimuli the FED has given,
we have to be very watchful for new signs of lay-offs that would point
to a business slow-down in the US. Wall Street is not priced for a
recession. And if the Federal Government is again brought to a standstill
by Congress, why would the DJI not fall at least 17% from its highs,
as it did in the Summer of 2011?
Stay short DIA. Add a short in IWM. Sell Bullish MAXCP
stocks that drop below their 65-dma and short more of tonight's
MINCPs. I expect the markets to re-test their recent lows
and not reach a reliable bottom for two or three weeks.
Though the DJI lost only 51, today there were 646 more down than up
and NYSE Down Volume was twice Up Volume. New lows
outpaced new high by 11x. Our bearish MINCPs keep falling.
Seasonality has been especially bearish since 1999 for the next
three weeks.
The present price patterns in the key indexes look like bearish
narrowing wedges. I would think technically, the market would
benefit a great deal from a successful re-test of 15700. I am
concerned that market makers in the DJI/DIA and SPY are unwilling
to allow such a test, precisely because they are very much afraid that
the 15700 will not hold and the market might then go past an important
"tipping point" and decline very sharply.
9/22/2015
At this writing, the DJI is down only 8 points in overnight
trading.
It has been down 120 earlier. The Bulls are not surrendering easily
to the Bears yet. But the Hourly DJIA has broken its well-tested
uptrtendline.
This should have opened the door for the DJI to test its recent low closing at
15666.44, about 854 points or 5% below today's close. Tests of lows
following steep declines occur in 2/3 of the cases when the
DJI sells off 10% to 14%.
A rally from here only delays the formation of a better, more solid bottom.
Stay short plenty of Bearish MINCPs. They keep falling.
Seasonality remains
bearish. Up-Day volume does not look high enough to allow the DJI to get
past 16750,
the point from which the the DJI swiftly turned down last Thursday.
9/21/2015
Sell short DIA if the Hourly DJI breaks 16350. The big weakness in
Biotechs today
has been blamed on some tweets by Hillary Clinton. The real reason they
were so weak is because of how vulnerable the whole market, especially the DJI,
looks.
As I said, yesterday, a re-testing of 15700 seems unavoidable.
Unfortunately
if that level does not hold, the DJI will then be down more than 14.5%.
That then gives 4:1 odds favoring a bear market of at least 19%.
The operative Peerless signal has been a profit-taking Sell S14. It has
been
considered a profit-taking signal because there were no other cases of it
occurring
when the DJI had not already fallen 14.5%. That may prove to have been too
cautious.
Add more short sales from our weak Bearish MINCP stocks. Close out most
long positions if their Closing Powers break their uptrends.
.
9/18/2015
http://tigersoftware.com/HL1015/9-18-2015/
The operative Peerless signal is a profit-taking Sell S14. But note how weak
the Peerless key values are. Understand, too, that
has been a growing tendency
since 2011 for the DJI not to reach the "normal"
upper band. I think that it's fair to
assume that all the computerized trading has caused
this. Short-term, the DJI has
peaked in a rising wedge price pattern. This
pattern is usually bearish. So,
was Thursday's high volume (red) reversal
day.) We also have to be worried
that the DJI did not have enough strength even to
tag its falling 65-dma.
And, of course, the bull market is old and its
200-day ma has been violated.
When we stir in the bearish seasonality, especially
in the weeks following
September's Triple Witching Fridays, it seems
unavoidable that the DJI
must retest 15700 in the next two weeks.
Traders should use any break in the DJI's
hourly uptrend to short DIA.
Tiger users should hold LONG NUGT (Gold is now
back above its 65-dma)
and most of the biotechs
we've been placing on the Bullish MAXCP lists each
night. I would only hold these long
positions, if I was short many of
the Bearish MINCPs.
9/17/2015
The FED's decision to hold rates where they currently are
for the time being has probably been largely discounted by
by the market. Another day or two's additional gains would seem
to accomplish this. At the same time, a DJI close about 50
points higher could bring a reversing Peerless Sell S9 or Sell S12.
More details will be presented this weekend, especially if we do get a
new Sell. A retest of the lows should not come as a big surprise, especially
given the normal bearishness of the next two weeks. Our Stocks'
Hotline is about evenly hedged.
9/16/2015
The Hourly DJI has broken out above its flat resistance and
QQQ's Closing Power downtrend has been bullishly broken.
Clearly, the market is expecting a "Dovish" announcement from the
Fed Chairwoman tomorrow on the issue of whether the FED
will finally raise rates. At a minimum, the market seems to be
expecting the Fed to delay a rate hike until December. Such an
announcement should bring a quick advance by the DJI to its upper
3.5% band. With the P-Indicator still negative, such a move will
very likely produce a reversing Peerless Sell S9. This would seem
to put a cap on how much the DJI can advance. I expect some
of our Bullish MAXCP stocks to do much better.
If Yellen does give a "dovish" consensus, I suspect 10% gains will be
made in stocks whose Closing Power has previously been falling for at least
six months but whose Closing Power down-trends will be broken if the
stocks close up above their openings for another date or two. I would
favor buying these stocks as well as the most highly Accumulated
Bullish MAXCP
stocks and those with Bullish Closing Power Buy B7s
that have surpassed their 65-dma. A number of financial stocks are
in this category. As always, we will cover short sales in stocks whose
Closing Powers break their
downtrends.
9/15/2015
In theory, an hourly DJI move to 16700 should call for an advance
to 17450, just as a decline below 16200 should bring a decline below 15500.
As long as the Hourly DJI's uptrend-line is not violated, short-term
traders should give the market a chance to breakout above its flat
resistance-line.
Aggressive traders should buy QQQ if the Fed leaves rates unchanged.
That the DJI was able to rally today despite the bearish seasonality,
has to be viewed constructively. Wall Street has apparently decided
that the Fed will not dare to confront them and take away the "free
money" that has made Wall Street prosper. The very fact that so many
assume the Fed will remain the willing puppet of Wall Street, may
get even the Doves to show a little backbone this time and make
a token rate hike.
Peerless is unwilling to give a new Buy signal or a new Sell signal. The last
signal remains a profit-taking Sell S12. In general, the
odds of a recovery
back up to the upper band are more
than 75% when the DJI falls,
as here, more than 10% but does not close
down more than 14% from its highs.
Knowing this and seeing that the Hourly DJI is still in an uptrend,
our Stock's Hotline is short only as many stocks as we are long.
We remain hedged, using the continuing weakness of the Bearish MINCPs
to hedge the long positions taken from the Bullish MAXCPs.
9/14/2015
More and more it looks like the DJI will break down from its
narrowing price triangle and there will be a retest of 17600.
Too few stocks are making new highs. The breadth statistics
remain bearish. In other words, it has become way too difficult
to make money on the long side, even with our Bullish MAXCPs.
And what's worse, we are now entering one of the most bearish
10-trading day periods that the market offers. So Sell any
Bullish MAXCPs that have recently fallen below their 65-dma.
Short more of the bearish MINCPs. Most of these stocks
are falling, day after day and even when the DJI rises.
9/11/2015
The Hourly DJI's rising triangle pattern is controlling prices for the
DJI Most of the other key indexes and ETFs have similar patterns.
The Biotech IBB now sports a
slightly broken
Closing Power downtrend.
Another good day after the Opening would
do the same for DIA, QQQ
and IWM.
I think traders can use Closing Power now to anticipate
which way the markets will next jump.
But
what happens with the DJI or QQQ may not have much impact on
a lot of smaller stocks. After all, it is the unofficial job of the blue
chips to make
the stock market look much safer than it really is! 85% of all stocks are still
below their 65-dma and the DJI has lots of resistance at 17000.
Right now, there's
no sure way to know what the Fed will do about rates
later this week. So,
staying hedged with our Bullish MAXCPs long and
our Bearish MINCPS
short seems reasonable. Peerless only shows a
Sell S14 profit-taking
Sell signal and that is now three weeks old.
9/10/2015
The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S14. Breadth today did
not match the size of the DJI's advance. In addition, new lows expanded
considerably as did the number of our MINCP stocks. The Hourly DISI
has become weaker than the Hourly DJI's price action. A decline must be
expected. If the breaks its hourly uptrend-line now at 16178, look for
a quick test of 15700. If the support there is broken by 100 points
on a closing basis, I would think we will see a much bigger decline.
In fact, my first estimate of what happened in the past since 1928
suggests that odds would then be more than 2:1 that the DJI will decline
at least to a low 19% below its highs. More work will be done on this
very soon. Stay hedged, but add more short sales from our Bearish
MINCPs
and Bearish QuickSilver lists today.
9/9/2015
The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S14. The DJI is still
above its 3.5% lower band. So, there is still a chance that
we are seeing a normal "correction". But there are many negatives.
Hedging with shorts from our bearish MINCP stocks is recommended.
If the DJI breaks its hourly uptrend-line now at 16124, look for
a quick test of 15700. If the support there is broken by 100 points
on a closing basis, I would think we will see a much bigger decline.
9/8/2015
The Hourly DJI chart still shows the important short-term uptrend-line to watch.
Volume has been coming into the Hourly advance. The exact opposite
was true at the June-July top . So, this has to be bullishly construed.
More importantly, the DJI today got back above its lower 3.5% band
below the 21-day ma. If it stays within the bands, this will look more
and more like a normal correction, since the DJI has not fallen
and closed more than 14% below its bull market high. This is the scenario
I was concerned with when I announced the Sell S14 signal to be a profit-
taking signal, not a call for new short sales. Only if the DJI closes more
than 14% below the highs should a Sell S14 be used to sell short.
We still see that more than 85% of all the stocks we follow are below their
65-dma.
There is still ample overhead resistance at 17000 on the DJI. The Fed may
still
raise rates on September 17th. The key SPY chart shows a still falling
5-day ma
and both Opening and Closing Power are falling. So, my suggestion is to be
hedged by being long some of bullish MAXCP stocks and short some of the
"ugliest" Bearish MINCPs. The best of the biotechs will be more immune to
any business slowdown in the US. BLUE would seem to be in a very
good position to buy, having just gotten back above its rising 200-day ma
and having now had its 90-day Stochastic K-Line and Pct-D Lines
rise back above 20.
9/4/2015
The DJI is trying to recover this morning. The futures are up 250.
These wild swings are signs of bearish illiquidity. I fear the openings
are rigged to give the appearance of more strength than there really is.
The DJI may only be bouncing back up to 16600 again. A failure
to go higher will be bearishly perceived.
While 77% of the 10%-13.5% DJI declines
from bull market peaks
since 1928
do recover and climb back up to their old
highs, all 100% of
the nine DJI's steep sell-offs whose first rallies failed
to get above their
lower 3.5% band
fell much lower.
I remain
skeptical of any rallies. It's very hard to find attractive
Bullish MAXCP stocks. The operative Peerless signal is a Sell S14.
The Hourly DJI
even shows a bearish continuation head and shoulders.
We see no signs of a reversal
in the deflationary downtrends of Crude Oil,
Chinese Stocks, Emerging Markets' stocks
or Commodities.
It's true that US stocks are seen as a safer haven by investors all over
the world. They are also attracted here by the strong US Dollar.
But it is asking a lot for US blue chips to remain in uptrends all
by themselves. 90% of the 5000 stocks and ETFs we follow are
below their 65-dma. There is too much overhead resistance for the
market to be much of a buyer in here.
9/3/2015 While the traders nervously await the Jobs Report tomorrow morning,
our Sell S14, our QuickSilver "Pivot-Pont" Sell today and the falling
Closing Powers should serve us well and let us go into this 3-day weekend
without
any substantial long position.
There does not appear to be any "good" Jobs figure. Any August Jobs'
number above 225,000 will most likely be seized upon as proof by "hawks"
and wavering "doves" that it's time to wean Wall Street away from "free"
FED money and start to raise short-term interest rates on September 17th.
But any
much weaker Jobs' numbers may also be construed as a bearish sign
that the weakening global economy and world-wide Deflation trends are
becoming threats to the US economy. So, why take any risks right now
in the market? Enjoy the three day weekend.
9/2/2015
The operative Peerless signal is now a Sell S14. As long as the DJI does
not
fall more than 14% from its highs, S14s are not "Sell Short" signals, only
suggestions
to take profits. Above DJI-17000 there appears to be little upside
potential.
I think we should wait for a new Peerless Buy signal to buy or else trade
very short-term using the Hourly and 5-day ma trends.
The market continues to try to repair the damage done by the recent steep13.5%
drop. As long as the DJI does not drop below 15700, the bulls are betting
that this has just been one more "correction" in a series of now-forgotten
corrections in the long bull market since the end of the 2007-2009 bear
market. I suspect it is the FED's Open Market Committee which will
determine
on September 17th by its decision on interest rates whether we have just seen a
"correction" or the beginning of a new bear market which will drop the DJI
down at least 20%. "What the Fed giveth, they can quickly take away."
It will be very hard for the DJI and SP-500 to single-handedly turn around
all the other markets that are now falling at a fast clip. The average
American consumer
is more indebted than ever and has not seen any significant real wage gains
adjusted for inflation
for a long time. With foreign market dwindling for US multinationals'
goods, more
lay-offs would seem to be in cards, not more hiring. Watch the Friday
Jobs' numbers
closely.
Fortunately, the Tiger Accumulation Index is rising So institutions are
still willing
to buy on weakness. But September's bad reputation in the market is
well-deserved
and I'm not so sure the FED won't raise rates if only to prove that they are not
"wimps".
The 5-day ma will probably turn down at tomorrow's close. And the key
Closing
are still in downtrends.
9/1/2015
Last Thursday and Sunday night, I suggested taking profits in the
stocks bought last week when the DJI was down near 15700, but
I have not suggested new short sales. The Hourly DJI chart's minor
uptrend is still intact. Seasonally, we should next see a bit of a
recovery
for the rest of this week. I doubt if Friday's Jobs' Report will hold any
surprises.
The rising NYSE Down volume should strictly limit any market recovery
Yet the rising Accumulation Index means there should still be support
if the DJI re-tests 17700. Unless you can watch the Hourly DJI's
rising support and falling resistance lines, it will probably be best
to plan to be a buyer near 16800 and a seller near 17600.
Taking
two extra days off for this Labor Day week-end sounds pretty appealing.
The ground the market gains just before Labor Day is usually lost
soon afterwards. There is no need to be a casualty in this violent and
often suicidal "trench warfare".
A new Peerless S14 has been created. Here is
only means "take profits". It
does not mean to "go short", too. The new S14 would only be
a Sell and a Sell Short if the DJI had already fallen more than 14% from its
highs to its lows. The DJI now is still officially in "correction" mode,
so far.
8/31/2015
A hidden war is going on within the FED. Right now, it is this struggle
and
its outcome that will most impact Wall Street prices.
The FED has announced that they will have an "expedited' meeting tomorrow
at 1:30 PM EST to discuss market conditions. Clearly, the weakness
this morning is going to get their attention.
The FED is about to make a terrible mistake if it raises rates at this juncture
in
the name of fighting inflation. Inflation, no matter how you measure it,
is nowhere
near the 2% target level they have set out. (And of course, the FED is charged
with being concerned about Employment and Market Stability, too!).
Commodities
are falling at a -18% annualized rate, which is accelerating down.
Many
overseas
stock markets are already in extended bear markets. China's stock
market appears to
be
about to start a new leg down. This is the world's second
biggest
economy.
And, Oil, of course, is down more than 50% from its peak last year.
So why is the Fed risking raising rates right now? The Hawks do not reveal
their real motivations. The Hawks' only say they believe that a dangerous inflation
is
right around the corner and must be scared away now. This nonsense has spooked
the US and the World Markets, too, not that the Hawks even consider the
overseas' "blowback" of their utterances and actions.
The Hawks' position on the dangers of inflation now looks so absurd
the FOMC may still not accept their arguments and a rate hike may be averted or
delayed. Tomorrow, the DOVISH Boston Fed Governor speaks in New York
at 1:15 PM.
I expect his remarks to boost the market after a steep sell-off at the Opening
tomorrow.
The bullishness of the pre-Labor day trading should then shore up the market.
Traders should buy DIA and the other general market ETFs in the morning
weakness, I think,
if the DJIA falls to 16000. Key support is at 15700.
8/28/2015 Take
some short-term profits. The Peerless Buy B16 has now seen the DJI
very quickly rise 1000 points and recover half of what it has lost over the last
three months. A shallow retreat, possibly to 16250, seems
likely based on
the price action after other computerize sell-offs (1987, 2010 and 2011).
The normally bullish trading just before and after Labor Day (next Monday)
should limit the decline. The central technical problem now is all the
overhead resistance
from where prices broke down. We will also need to see higher trading
volume
for the DJI to advance to continue above 17000 despite the B16/B14. All
eyes are on the FED now. What they blessed the market with, they could
just as easily take away. The rapidness of the sell-off down to 15750 from
17000 demonstrates this.
My study today of the recent public statements of the members of the FED's Open
Market Committee suggests that the odds are at least 50% that September
will see a rate hike, despite all the obvious signs of Deflation. (The
techniques for
studying this deliberately very opaque power-elite remind me of what
Kremlinologists
did during the Cold War.). The market must also now figure out how to copy
with
upstart Republican and Democrat Presidential candidates; both are vocally
rejecting
Wall Street campaign financing, so as to to seem be much more populist.
8/27/2015 The
Peerless Buy B16 has brought us a record 988 (+6%) point gain
in just two trading days. I can hardly argue with anyone who wants to
take profits, especially since the DJI has now closed back at the 3%
lower band, in other words where the Peerless lower band-support was broken.
The DJI has also now recovered 50% of what it had lost from the May
peak to the August bottom. And in 3 of the 4 cases of extreme declines
occasioned by crazed, unregulated computerized trading (1987, 1997,
2011 and 2102), it was necessary for the DJI to come back down to
its closing low and build a base before going much higher.
Today did bring an augmenting (or reinforcing) Peerless Buy B14 and
a Buy B17. This is unusual for Buy B16s. The history of such cases
where the B16 is reinforced by a non-seasonal Buy signal is quite
quite bullish and would, by itself, predict a rally back up to 18000.
However, none of these augmented B16s occurred in late Summer.
And as we all know, the short-term seems largely under the control of
the Fed. They may still raise rates in September, but I doubt it.
They
will be cautious. That seems to have been the interpretation of commodity
traders, who today boosted the 4-horsemen of the Delfationary Appocalyse:
Oil, All Commodities, China and Overseas ETFs. Uncertainty about the Fed's
intentions should occasion some profit-taking.
The very short-term outlook seems to call for a DJI pullback to 16000.
But I would just hold the long positions I have recommended. No
shorts are suggested.
8/26/2015
Yesterday's reversing Peerless Buy B16 brought a record 619
point reversal back upwards by the DJI today. This ended 6 straight
down-days. We are reasonably safe with long positions, provided
the DJI does not make any more new lows until we get a Peerless
Sell. Important support exists 13.5% below the recent peak in the DJI.
This is the outer limit to how deep a correction can go without being
much more threatening.
Rumor has it that the FED led by the NY FED Governor
will now delay any rate hike. That this would boost the market so
much today would seem to show that the Fed is the problem (not China)
and the Fed has the short-term solution, more very cheap money for
the big banks. Though many Bearish MINCPs may continue to decline,
I think there is more opportunity buying importing Retailers and big banks, as
usual after a sell-off.
8/25/2015 Tonight
brought a Peerless Buy B16. These brave signals do have
the power to reverse very steep declines. A rally back to 17000 seems
likely.
The example of August 1971 is the closest parallel. This is when
US stopped backing up its currency with Gold. For everyone
afraid that this would mean rampant inflation and the destruction
of the US economy, it felt like a calamity and so they sold and sold.
Sound a little familiar? But Peerless somehow knew when to Buy.
The 10-day period up to Labor Day (two weekends away) shows
a strong tendency to rally. So, cover most of the short sales. Buy
some of the Bullish MAXCP stocks.
The best description
of past Buy B16s is found here.
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/-B16.htm
8/24/2015
The Peerless Sell S12*
still stands.
The breakdowns below the expected
and flat
support at 17000 is considered a judged Sell S10.
In calamitous trading, the DJI closed down 5% today and 13.5% below its
peak. But, as I write this, it DJI's futures are up 477.
Traders will
want to watch the short-term up-trend-lines. The declining 5-day
(35-hour) ma must be expected to be resistance. I doubt if the
DJI can go right back up above 17000. A re-test of its lows
may even seen later by Friday. Cover some shorts but let's hold
on buying until Peerless gives a Buy signal.
The Closest parallel is the Crash of 1987. If that parallel continues to
play out here, there may not be much further advance up from
wherever the DJI closes tomorrow. Instead, it will have to retest
15700.
The danger is real here. If the FED does not do something dramatic to
shore up
the market, we could continue to slide into Deflation. I thought it
was revealing that Hillary and Obama had nothing to say about the
market, while the Sanders/Trumps solution would take years to apply,
namely, restoring the American Middle Class via a renaissance of American
manufacturing jobs.
8/21/2015
The Peerless Sell S12* Stands. The breakdowns below expected
and flat
support below 17000 may also be considered a judged Sell S10.
The DJI
is testing the 15900-16000 support as I write this, in over-night trading.
. The way it knifed down below
the 17000
support would certainly now make
me not want to buy at 16000 very quickly.
Stay Short all Bearish MINCPs. Hold Long almost nothing.
Our ESP Page's Hotline is short 11 stocks and long only NUGT.
> No new Buy Signal. S12*s rule. 514 points down, a close on
the lows, on a Friday... In October 19th 1987, the following Monday
after a similar set-up, saw the DJI fall 22% as computerized leveraged index
options went wild. We now have many more ways to go short on down ticks
with lots of leverage. But Exchange now has "circuit-breakers".
Trading
may just be halted. Knowing that this may artificially and only
temporarily stop the
exit-from-stocks, institutions may join the public and be in a great hurry
to sell on Monday morning before the circuit-break, provided the FED says
and does nothing constructive.
See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29
> Watch the four
horsemen of the Delation Appocalyse.
Oil, Foreign ETFs, YANG, Commodities. Until they
break their down-trendlines, we must assume we are in a worsening
World-Wide Recession and Deflation. The Currency Trade War
is a response to that, much like tariffs were in the 1930s..
> The extraordinarily high down-day volume on a breakdown
from new hew highs is reminiscent of what happened in 2000
to that era's go-go stocks on stilts. When the end comes, it can
come very, very quickly.
> Wall Street has been dominant politically for a long time. But this
era could be ending. Hence the popularity of Sanders and Trump.
People in the US absolutely do not want their jobs sent overseas.
They do not want to have their communities be turned into Detroits or Greece,
just to protect Big Bankers and make money for Wall Street and
the big-wigs at the top of the Corporations.
8/20/2015 No
New Buy Signal.
Since there are no earlier cases of past Buy B17s occurring
when the DJI is down more than 2% the day of the signal,
below its falling 65-dma and still apparently in a bull market,
today's Buy signal should not be trusted. I will have to redo
Peerless accordingly. The best discussion of Buy B17s
is here.
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/--Buy-B17.htm
I'ts Friday, so we could get a rally up from 17000
simply based on short-covering before a weekend.
But down-day volume has been quite heavy today
and yesterday. Coupled with the weak OBV Lines
for the SP-500 and OEX, I doubt if any rally will
get past 17500.
DJI-17000 is a round-number support level. And it might hold
up.
More testing is usually needed after such a sharp decline.
If there is a reversal, watch the breadth. It will need to be very good,
better than 3.5 advances to declines on NYSE to give a Buy B19.
8/19/2015 Peerless
remains on Red Sell 12*s.
The signs of Deflation significantly worsened today as Crude Oil and
the Chinese YINN broke below key support. Somehow, the Fed and
Janet Yellen have been maintaining the declines in Oil and Commodities
are "transitory". Will the action today change their opinions or on Open
Market Committee votes? It fact, it may be too late for them to make
much of a difference.
The Fed could come out in light of the Chinese and World Market's drop
top to new lows (along with Oil and Commodities) and say that they are rethinking
their plan to raise rates in September. So far, they have not. This
is is downright
scary. I suspect Professionals may soon have no choice but to start
using
leveraged short ETFs en masse on the major market indexes. No one knows
how fast this could cause the DJI to decline.
The NYSE A/D Line
is still in a falling trend and the 65-dma is now accelerating
downward. With the DJI only down 5% from its highs and the bearish month
of September only weeks away, the risks seem much greater than
rewards for even the blue-chips. A 10% decline from the DJI's
peak would take out the 17000 support. The next support below
that is at 16000.
8/18/2015 Peerless
remains on Red Sell 12*s. The NYSE A/D Line
is still falling but the Hourly OBV-DISI Line is in a short-term
uptrend. Watch for a break in the Hourly DJI uptrend. The
upside looks quite limited as long as the FED stays on course
to raise rates in September. Though NY Professionals keep
pumping the US market up, it will be hard-pressed to keep rising
with
so much weakness overseas. In 1929 and 1937, the Fed
seriously underestimated the dangers of Deflation and, instead,
focused on curbing excessive stock speculation. My thought is
is that if they dwell too much on the mistakes made during the
Housing Bubble of 2005-2007, they will be spending too much time
fighting the last war and not studying the dangers of Deflation..
The weak openings are being brought on by the troubles in the Chinese,
overseas and Oil markets. So far, the down-openings have recently
been repaired by Professional buying in New York. A rising Closing
Power
and a falling Opening Power, like we see now, would be bullish if a
bear market was ending. But, with the DJI now working on its 77th month
in the current bull market, I would bet that overseas Deflation could tip
the scales here and start a sharp correction if the Fed raises rates. So,
unless all the last few trading days' notable Professional buying represents
knowledge either that the Fed will not be raising rates or knowledge that
US business conditions are about to be significantly boosted by something else,
I would give the Sell S12* more chance to play out.
8/17/2015 Peerless
remains on Red Sell 12*s. The NYSE A/D Line
is still falling. The Hourly OBV-DISI Line is still in a short-term
uptrend. But watch for a break in the Hourly Uptrends. I suspect the
upside now is quite limited.
SPY is somewhat stronger. But its Daily
OBV is lagging by a wide margin. So, I doubt if it will be able to
past its 65-day.
This is a market in which 75% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
Twice as many groups have a majority of their stocks below their
65-day mvg.avgs, as have a majority above their 65-dma. Only
HD has both a rising Opening and Closing. 7 DJI-30 stocks bearishly
show both Opening and Closing Power is falling.
Overseas markets are getting weaker almost every day. This is a
prime reason for the continuing decline in oil prices. The leading US
stocks
have become very appealing to Hot Money from overseas.
Their buying is mostly in stocks and bonds that pay safe dividends.
This helps explain the defensiveness of the market now. The
strongest groups
now, REITs, Bonds and Utilities, of course, all pay dividends.
Assured earnings rather than possible future growth is favored.
In very selective and a defensive markets, risk-avoidance
is necessary. Stay hedged with some Bearish MINCP short sales
and rely on the short-term perspective of the Tiger QuickSilver
programs with high IP21 and BOTH-UP stocks and ETFs,
8/14/2015 Peerless
remains on Red Sell 12*s. The DJI will rally a little,
probably next to 17600. SPY should rally more. A very limited
number of HIGH-UPPCT and BULLISH MAXCP stocks
should do well until September. But hold an assortment of BEARISH
MINCP stocks short.
8/13/2015 Peerless
remains on Red Sell 12*s. The NYSE A/D Line
is still falling.
Daily volume on up-days is not impressive. The
World Markets
remain weak, as is Oil. It has to be very significant
that China has devalued its currency for a
third straight day.
This is immediately having a bearish impact on many of the
DJI-30 internationals. Seasonality is bearish, too.
A brief rally, is probably indicated by the way some of the high Accumulation
"Bullish MAXCPs" broke out today. I would think any rally
will be limited, however.
8/12/2015
Peerless remains on Red Sell 12*s. Though
the DJI's reversal
from 17000 looks impressive, it was not enough to give
us a
Peerless Buy signal. The NYSE A/D Line is still
falling.
Daily volume on up-days is not impressive. The World
Markets
must be very weak; China has devalued its currency for
a
third straight day.
So, even if SPY and the SP-500 advance here, its narrow
trading range should limit
any rally. Without a new Buy signal from Peerless and
the bearish month
of September just ahead, the whole US market's upside
is probably limited, except
for special situations and oversold leveraged ETFs like
NUGT
and GASL where short-covering is playing a big role.
It's remains too difficult to find attractive stocks to
buy. Respect what
that is telling us about the market now. Meanwhile,
our shorts of bearish
MINCPs show little interest in advancing.
8/11/2015
Peerless remains on Red Sell 12*s. Volume has been
low on rallies and September's bearishness looms ahead.
Peerless history shows that good breadth does not prevent
a big decline if there has been a Sell S9 or S12 and the 65-dma
is broken, especially with 7 straight down days (early 1984)
or steadily negative (red) Distribution for 80+ straight
days (early 1966.)
The Public was duped into buying at the top while Professionals
were heavy sellers. Now both Opening and Closing Powers
are falling. This is associated with very steep declines.
The way Monday's rally was quickly snuffed out today
leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of bulls.
China broke its word by again lowering its currency's value.
It must fear the world's economy is very weak. The US
stock market will not be able to escape this.
Stay short a good number of the Bearish MINCPs. Hold
long NUGT. A DJI drop of an additional 10% would not
be surprising if the FED does not take off the table the
possibility of a September rate hike. The longer they
wait to do this, the faster the sell-off may become given
the weapons of mass financial destruction Wall Street has created.
8/10/2015
Peerless remains on Red Sell 12*s. Volume has been
low on rallies and the 7 straight down-days until today establishes
a pattern that one upday (today) does not destroy, especially
this late in a bull market. In addition, September's bearishness looms
ahead. Just in case, the market decides to rally, I think we should treat a
break in the NYSE A/D Line downtrend as a judged Buy B6.
I doubt if the Chinese decision to devalue their currency by only
2% will do much good for Chinese stocks, but it will help some
US retailers like Home Depot and Nike. Traders should have bought
over-sold NUGT or GASL when they closed far above their
5-day ma pivot-points.
8/7/2015
The operative Peerless signal remains a pair of Red Sell 12*s.
17300 has become the short-term hourly support. But until Peerless
gives a Buy signal, it is probably best to expect lower prices.
There were 5x more new lows than new highs of Friday and 12x more
Closing Power new lows than new highs. The DJI has now fallen
seven straight days. Historically, this event has correctly confirmed
the DJI's penetration of the 65-dma at the end of a bull market in
fives cases, since 1940. Although, the Peerless internals are higher
than they were a few days ago on the DJI's previous low, taken altogether,
it seems likely that
there is still much more money to be made being short than long.
And in another month, we will find ourselves in September, the
year's most bearish month.
8/6/2015
The operative Peerless signal remains a pair of Red Sell 12*s.
For most stocks, there is probably a lot more risk than upside
potential, especially those that show steady Red distribution
and a weak Closing Power.
While the Peerless internal strength indicators did not confirm the
DJI's closing low today, the DJI is only 2% below the 21-day ma.
Peerless buy signals need a deeper decline, given the negative V-I reading.
Watch biotechs. IBB could well be about to complete a bearish
head.shoulders. Since biotechs are among the last groups in
bull market to top out, this would be a very bad sign that speculators
"want out".
A monthly Jobs number below 235,000 may give the market
an excuse to advance. But it will take more than a one-day
jump to turn up the key ETFs' 5-day ma.
and IP21
8/5/2015
The operative Peerless signal remains a pair of Red Sell 12*s.
For most stocks, there is probably a lot more risk than upside
potential. Looking at the DJI's falling Hourly DISI/OBV,
the retreating NYSE A/D Line, the pattern of lower lows in
the DJI and now, once again, the worsening Red Accumulation,
we Tiger users can see how much technical damage has been
done this elderly bull market. We have no choice but to
remain generally bearish. Even short-term, the key ETFs'
Closing Powers remain in downtrends.
Do not be mislead by dramatic rises in this era's NIFTY-FIFTY.
Too few stocks are rising now and the gaudy gains made by
many of the NIFTY-FIFTY recently could not be better contrived
to give the Public a false sense of assurance about the market.
In actuality, more and more of these "one-decision" super-stocks
are getting knocked down. At some point, too few of the NIFTY FIFTY
will be rising and the Public will then finally become painfully and
belatedly aware of the fact that a new Bear Market is already
well under way.
8/4/2014
It can't be good that AAPL has completed its own sprawling head
and shoulders pattern. The DJI looks like it is only a few steps
behind AAPL. Let's watch the declining Closing Power trends
of DIA and SPY to tell if the current test of 17500 on the DJI
is over. Meanwhile, sell short some of the most bearish
MINCP stocks or buy some of the most bullish leveraged Short
ETFs as judged by the Tiger QuickSilver Ranker.
8/3/2014 The
operative Peerless signal remains a pair of Red Sell 12*s.
The steady distribution in the market and the heavy down-hour
and down-day volume are warnings that any rally is apt to be very limited.
Another test of 17500 may not be successful. Thus, hedging with shorts
among our many Bearish MINCP stocks is advised. This is a very
difficult to make money in on the long side, except by using our short-term
QuickSilver approach.
But the 17500 DJI support did hold up today. That should increase the
odds of a recovery by the stubbornly bullish DJI back up to its
now falling 65-dma about 400 points higher. Also supporting the notion
that the general market should rally is the failure of the QuickSilver approach
to give Buys on any of the most important leveraged short ETFs on the
general market. QuickSilver does say to stay short Oil and Gold Stocks.
7/31/2015
The Red Sell S12* stands. Deflation and Leveraged Short
ETFs threaten to belie and thwart the Fed's rosy view of
2% US growth. What more can the FED do prevent a
bigger decline? A DJI rally back to 17960 and the 65-dma
does seem a good possibility this month. But very heavy
down-hour and down-day NYSE volume may not even allow
this. I would become alarmed if the Accumulation Index turns down
into negative territory (as in February 1966 just before a bear
market started), if Chinese stocks and Oil make new lows and
if the 5-day ma of the key leveraged Short ETFs turns up
with a rising IP21 and Closing Power. (The new QuickSilver
programs will be released Monday or Tuesday after I send
out the new Tiger web pages' addresses.)
7/30/2015 Today
the DJI's Accumulation Index turned more
positive,
a +.05. In the past, when the IP21 rose over +.04 following
3-5 months of Red negativity, the DJI always moved significantly
higher. True, there has not been a case like this
in the last 50 years. So, you might want to wait to
see the NYSE A/D Line downtrend be broken to nullify the
Red Sell S12. Alternatively, we might want to buy on the DJI's
next 100-point retreat. I expect the DJI to remain weaker
than SPY, QQQ or IBB. Each of these could easily jump
to new highs in the next surge upwards. But soon after that, very
likely Peerless will give us another Sell. The DJI's narrow trading
range will probably dictate the limits to the markets moves in
August just as it has for the last 5 months. (This page was
inadvertently written over Sunday night. Sorry. Below are
links to Bullish and Bearish situations.)
www.tigersoftware.com/MAXMIN/maxmin/7-30/bullish.html
www.tigersoftware.com/MAXMIN/maxmin/7-30/bearish.html
7/29/2015
The DJI's Accumulation Index has turned
positive but it
needs to keep improving and volume needs to expand
to avoid a repeat of the January-February 1966 top.
(More details in a new study.)
Understand that a rally back up to 18000 would actually give
more price
symmetry
to the emerging head/shoulders that the DJI
could be making. The NYSE A/D Line and the A/D Line for
all the stocks we follow are well below their downtrend-lines.
At this point, the DJI and market as a whole seem stuck
within the their present trading ranges. The operative
Peerless signal remains a Sell S12*.
7/28/2015 A
short-term bounce within the confines of the DJI's trading
range has probably started but Peerless Remains on a Sell S12*. Traders
are hoping now the Fed will delay its Rate Hike. Perhaps,
some got advanced word about the Fed's intentions. I would use
the rally to take new short positions in some of the leveraged ETFs with
rapidly falling 5-day ma as they get back to just below their 5-day ma
pivot points, provided their Opening and Closing Power are falling and
the IP21 is below -.25. See the QuickSilver table.
The DJI's 21-day Stochastic has moved back above the 20-level. Though
these signals have worked 11 times in
the last year and failed only twice
as short-term Buys and Sells, I would stress that a meaningful rally for most
stocks
seems unlikely. For one thing, the NYSE ratio of advances to declines
was only 2.6:1 today. A ratio higher than 3.5 has generally been
needed
since 2009 on these reversals back upwards if
there is to be a meaningful +4% rally.
7/27/2015
Hold very little long and hold tight your short sales in energy
stocks and commodities. Gold has another 40 points to
sell off by my reckoning.
The operative Peerless signal remains a Big Red Sell S12.
It is made more bearish by the fact that the Accumulation
Index has not risen above +.022 in more than 4 months.
Note that the DJI's 21-day Stochastic-K has not yet fallen to the oversold
0-10 level from which rallies have come during the past 5 years.
Even when a rally does come, I suspect it will be quickly
snuffed out.
See also how both the DJI and NYSE have big, 6-months' wide
head and shoulders patterns whose necklines are about to be broken.
These H/S patterns have been quite reliable since 1928.
Add to that, the NASDAQ's broadening pattern, the QQQ's false breakout
and the unrelenting selling pressure day after day since the peak and
we have to be quite worried purely for technical reasons.
7/24/2015
The DJI has now fallen to the 17500-17550 support. It may bounce,
but breadth, volume, Closing Power are all bearish. It is not
likely even it will rally very much.
The signs of serious Deflation are descending on our times,
much as they did in 1929 and all the media can talk about is
Donald Trump. That's reason enough to want the market to
prove itself before we become serious buyers again. Hold
lots of our Bearish MINCP stocks short.
7/23/2015 The
operative Peerless signal remains a Red Sell S12*.
DJI's Accumulation Index has been negative or nearly
so for four months. Rallies in the DJI keep getting snuffed out.
Institutions are heavy net sellers of blue chips and dividend
stocks on the NYSE now that the FED has become
unofficially committed to raising rates in the next few months.
If the DJI's trading range, 17500-18300, is broken decisively,
the DJI must be expected to break below 17000.
This is the third year in the Four year Presidential cycle.
So, that may help the market. In these years, the next 21 trading
days have risen 75% of the time since 1965. The NASDAQ
and Biotechs are doing their best to hold up, but breadth is weak
and the Hourly DISI keeps declining far ahead of prices.
Oil and oil service stocks are testing their six month lows.
Gold will probably fall to 1000, at which point speculators
should buy the vastly oversold NUGT.
7/22/2015
The DJI now shows 4 months of steady Red Distribution.
This is the reason the Peerless chart now shows 2 Red S12s.
Last night's Hotline demonstrated that this has always been bearish
in a rising market. In addition, the Hourly DJI's DISI-OBV Line
is in a steep decline. The DJI's Stochastic-21 K-Line has not
yet fallen below 20, an oversold level from which trading range
rallies usually occur. Though, the NASDAQ is still stronger than the
DJI, it now shows a bearish broadening top pattern. The most
weighty in the NASDAQ and QQQ, AAPL shows an
elongated head/shoulders pattern. Its Closing Power is very weak
and its Accumulation Index is in Red territory.
7/21/2015
The DJI has now gone more than 80 straight days without its Accum. Indez
(IP21) rising above +.022. So near a market's highs, this
has always been
quite bearish. This fact and the utter lack of liquidity
in Gold's plunge this past
week are warnings that we are getting close to a
significant decline. Usually,
Peerless gives its classic Sells before such a top is
made. But the new study
of what happens when the DJI goes four straight months
with Red Distribution
should, I think, be taken as sufficient reason to do more
selling and selling
short our Bearish MINCP stocks. Tech stocks will hold up
only so long
as the DJI does not rupture its 17500 support. Anyone
remember 1966?
7/20/2015 Presently,
the red Sell S12* signal given by Peerless Thursday tells us that
many DJI and NYSE stocks are probably going to have to test
their lows of two weeks ago. At the same time, the strongest NASDAQ and
growth
stocks are the recipients of new funds from money managers who
need to show a positive performance this year but are afraid that sticking
with dividend stocks will not serve that purpose now that the FED
seems to have decided to raise interest rates this year. Hold short some
of the Bearish MINCP stocks even now after today's big drop in many
of these natural resource stocks.
7/17/2015
Continue to hold long IBB and IWM despite the new Sell S12*.
Short more of the bearish MINCPs for so long as their Closing
Power is falling. At this point the weakest ETFs are natural resource
stocks
and many NYSE dividend plays. Clearly, money is coming
out of Blue Chips in hopes of a year-2000 like mini-bull market
in the best tech stocks. GOOG's jump of almost 100 points Friday
is a bugle-cry for aggressive traders to see if they can launch
a bullish charge and capture the emotions of smaller traders.
Long bull markets cannot seem to end until there has been a
"bubble of excessive greed". Knowing this, we can look back
at the year 2000, I think and see how and for how long it can be played,
Gold, seems headed back to its 1000-level, its exact point-of-breakout.
7/16/2015
Peerless gave a new Red Sell S12* signal today but the QQQ
broke out above flat resistance and would seem to now have a
clear path to 119, from back in March 2000. There is a good
chance that the QQQ and IBB will keep advancing while the
DJI stalls here for the next month and possibly re-tests 17500.
QQQ and IBB strength while the DJI falls back would match what
happened in early 2000 and in 2007-2008.
7/15/2015 The DJI seems
stuck in its17500-18200
trading range and
between the narrow +2% and -2% bands around the 21-day ma.
Meanwhile, the high-performance crowd are still buyers of
biotechs. Continue to watch AAPL and QQQ for signs
that they will rise further. At the end of the long 1991-2000
and 2003-2008 bull markets, biotechs and QQQ kept
rising for months after the DJI topped out.
7/14/2015 The DJI is 200 points
away from a new Peerless Sell, but
back in 2000 and 2008, though the DJI declined following
Peerless Sells, biotechs kept rising for months. Smaller
biotechs now dominate the Bullish MAXCPs. Watch AAPL.
If it cannot get back above its flat 65-dma, any breakout
by QQQ above 111 will be difficult.
7/13/2015 International events
are taking control of the market right now.
Nixon's surprise Feb. 1972 trip to China was bullish for the market.
I would think the thaw in relations with Iran would have
a similar effect. As long as the DJI does not fall back below
17800, I think it now is headed for its resistance at 18100.
Biotechs dominate the MAXCPs and oil, gold and other
inflation-hedges dominate the Bearish MINCPs.
7/10/2015 Internals seems very
weak. Another test of 17500 seems
very likely. The site that holds the 150 or so graphs
and the bullish and bearish MAXCPS and MINCPs
is offline at 6:50 PM Sunday night. If it is not working
at midnight, I will switch the contents to tigersoft.com.
But this server is much slower.
Take a look at new Data downloads - FASTDOWN
and FASTUP. These have all stocks and ETFs whose
5-day ma are rising faster than +500% or falling faster
than -500%. Run the Power Ranker against them and
apply the QuickSilver tactics if you are a short-term trader.
7/9/2015 In the
near-term, submit to the higher powers of the Fed
and the Chinese Government if they choose to support the
market. But add more Bearish MINCP shorts on a DJI
rally back to 17800 or if the 17500 support fails. And
watch AAPL.
7/8/2015 17500 held
with a little help from God, apparently. A rally
back to 17800 looks likely. Watch the breadth numbers
at the close. A ratio of 4:1, NYSE advancers over decliners
will probably produce a new Peerless Buy signal. A more modest
ratio will probably mean a retest of 17500.
7/7/2015 What's
happening in China could certainly happen here. The utter
failure of Monday's rally shows many traders want out of stocks very
urgently. I doubt if the 17500 support will hold up much longer.
However, many of the best short sales now are probably in
overseas stocks and ETFs.
7/6/2015 With 820 more down
than up on NYSE and Down Volume twice
up volume, the DJI did hold above 17500, but was unable to lead
much of a recovery rally. A recovery to 17800 would close the
break-down gap. Watch the Chinese markets. A vicious head/shoulders
pattern headlines there against the efforts of the Government to shore
up prices with artificial buying.
7/2/2015 Never trust a
London "odds-maker". If the DJI closes below 17500,
a drop to 17000 seems highly likely. It's also time to add more shorts
on our Tiger Stocks' Hotline and reduce long positions to a minimum.
Hold DIA short as long as its Closing Power is in a falling trend.
7/1/2015 Internals are not
improving as the DJI tries to close the gaps from Monday's
plunge down from 17900. Seasonal bullish will help and London Odds-makers
are predicting a "Yes" for more austerity in this weekend's Greek referendum.
But I think they may be surprised. 25% unemployment for four years surely
creates
a lot of resentment against austerity and it's possible that the book-makers
are talking only to those people in Greece who still have money to gamble.
.
6/30/2015 As long as the NYSE A/D Line
is falling, I would trust the Red Sell S12.
But a 150-200 point, short-term relief rally this week must be expected.
6/29/2015 America may seem like a
financial haven from European uncertainties this
coming week. But Red Distribution and the falling Closing Powers should
limit the markets ability to rally even as the normally bullish Fourth of July
weekend approaches.
6/26/2015
I succeeded in using an FTP program to place more than 150 current
charts
on http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/
Will try to put perhaps 50 each
night on it. It's still much easier for me to use FrontPage and
www.tigersoft.com
But in case www.tigersoft.com
should go down, I will place this page
and the Hotlines on
www.tigersoftware1.com/HL6715/index.html. This
will only be done in an emergency.
6/25/2015 Looking for an FTP program to
place charts on faster tigersoft1.com
Adobe Dreamweaver has crashed on my main computer.
6/24/2015 Note that we are now using
www.tigersoft.com, not
www.tigersoft1.com
My copy of Adobe's DreamWeaver suddenly crashed.
6/23/2015
6/22/2015
6/19/2015
..............................................................................................................................................
Previous Hotlines' Page -
http://tigersoftware1.com/Goodlinks.html
-
