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                  9/1/2015   70+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                   9/1/2015
        New Highs: NASD  4       NYSE    4
        New Lows:  NASD  33       NYSE  66
                                                 
          9/1/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5  
              These will be posted later tonight.               
       208   ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9/1/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         402     -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-1/MINCP.html
                      
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     9/1/2015        Last Thursday and Sunday night, I suggested taking profits in the
                           stocks bought last week when the DJI was down near 15700, but
                           I have not suggested new short sales.  As you can see from the Hourly
                           DJI chart, today's sharp sell-off has not yet broken the minor uptrend
                           in prices or OBV.  Perhaps, we will see a bit of a recovery for the rest
                           of this week.  I doubt if Friday's Jobs' Report will hold any surprises.

                           The rising NYSE Down volume should strictly limit any recoveries.
                           Yet the rising Accumulation Index means there should still be support
                           if the DJI re-tests 16700. Unless you can watch the Hourly DJI's
                           rising support and falling resistance lines, it will probably be best
                           to plan to be a buyer near 16800 and a seller near 17600.  Taking
                           two extra days off for this Labor Day week-end sounds pretty appealing.
                           The ground the market gains just before Labor Day is usually lost
                           soon afterwards.  There is no need to be a casualty of this suicidal
                           "trench warfare".
                          


 
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.

                           The speech today by FOMC DOVE, Rosengren, somewhat disappointed those
                           like me who believe raising rates in September would be very dangerous.
                           He did urge "caution" in raising rates, however.
                             Fed's Rosengren: Global Economic Weakness Argues for Rate Rise Caution
                           But instead of pointing to the dangers of raising rates now, he offered assurances that
                           the results of a gradual rate "normalization" would not much damage the economy.
                           His words were not dovish enough to prevent a very broad sell-off today. 
                           The DJI almost fell back to the support at the round number 16000.  Decliners
                           led advancers on the  NYSE by 6:1 and Down Volume was 25x greater than Up Volume.

                           Normally, we would expect the market now to recover for the rest of
                           this pre-Labor Day holiday (Monday).  I have looked at all those cases like
                           today where NYSE Down Volume was >25x what  NYSE Up Volume was. 
                           Only a little more than half the time does it show a reliably bullish "over-sold" condition.
                           Too often, it shows a bear market is starting, as in 1981 or 2008.  Here, it suggests
                           great caution should be applied.
 
                           The chart below lets us note that Red Down Volume is still way above Up-Volume. 
                           In addition, we see that only 7% of all A-Z stocks are still above their 65-day ma
                           and some of these are probably bearish ETFs.


                  



 

                      Previously from Here.
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                          The FED Is The Key Now.
|
                       There is just too much uncertainty that the Fed will start raising rates for the market
                       to move much higher and this is complicated by the next Jobs' Report coming
                       out of Friday.   What the FED has artificially created in the way of a long bull market
                       built on free money to big banks, it could quickly take away,  if the recent 13.5% DJI
                       decline is any indication. There are those who tell us the short term bonds show only
                       a 22% chance that September will bring a rate hike.
                       (See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/upshot/jobs-forecast-is-another-reason-for-the-fed-not-to-raise-rates.html?action=click&contentCollection=Economy&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article )

                       I am not so sure the odds are not closer to 50%. I believe the meeting will be
                       quite contentious. The outspoken "hawks" and the "doves" are about equal in number.
                       Janet Yellen, the supposedly dovish Chairwoman, has been mysteriously quiet recently
                       and out of sight. She did not go to their annual Wyoming meeting to talk with the other
                       Fed Governors.   Has there been a rebellion against her?  Is she becoming more hawkish
                       so that she can remain in control.  She apparently sees herself as the
                       impartial chairwoman who states the "consensus" of views at the end of the
                       FOMC meeting.  She is cautious.  And a cautious person would probably
                       wait until the evidence is stronger and the opinions more conclusively in favor
                       of a rate hike.
                      
                       Still, only the New York FED Governor, Dudley, has spoken out recently
                       to advocate caution in the face of the extreme bear market in developing countries,
                       the Chinese market's meltdown, falling oil prices and falling commodity prices.
                       Several other Fed Governors are on record recently as favoring a rate hike soon,
                       despite the signs of world-wide Deflation and the economic downturns overseas. 

                       Once upon a time, I was interviewed by the CIA to be a Kremlinologist, one who
                       studied the divergent interests and pronouncements of the dozen or so members
                       of the Soviet Union's Presidium.  I think I still have an interest in the politics of
                       secretive power-elites.  So, today I made a list of all the FED members of the
                       Open Market Committee, those who will decide on September 17th, whether
                       to raise short-term rates and tried to find on the internet what exactly they had last
                       said on the subject.  Let me show you what I found.  The conclusion I draw from
                       this exercise is that there may well now be a majority for a rate hike, even though
                       a majority of the Open Market Committee are considered more dovish than hawkish.

                       I plan to keep this list of t he key Fed policy-makers handy.  I will try  to refer to it
                       each time one of these FED members makes a public statement.  We will want to
                       see how they may be shifting their position and their intra-committee alliances.
                     
                                               Members of Fed's Open Market Committee:
                                 (They decide "by consensus" whether to raise short-term rates.)

                        5 Doves: Dudley, Evans,  Rosengren, Brainard, Tarullo

                        3 Doves shifting in favor of a rate hike: Yellen, Williams, Lockhart

                        6 Hawks: Fischer, Lacker, Powell, Bullard, Mester, George

                      (  What is a hawk?  What is a dove?    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_hawk_and_dove )
                             In 2013, Business Week made the same break-down that I am attempting here.
                                    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-2013-fomc-member-profiles-2013-1?op=1
                             Deutche Bank offered an assessment of the two camps within the Fed at the end of 2015.
                                    http://snbchf.com/monetary-fiscal-policy/fed-its-fomc-composition/

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                 Notes from last night.
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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