TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline  
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(C) 1985-2015 William Schmidt, Ph.D.  www.tigersoft.com    
                  All rights strictly reserved.  

Tiger Software  858-273-5900   PO Box 22784   San Diego, CA 92192 Email william_schmidt@hotmail.com  
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Announcements -

           Tiger/Peerless UPDATE.   A new TigerSoft/Peerless update has been released today.
               The new Tiger's update has the new Sell S12.  It has the 
               new QuickSilver table which is produced for any directory's stocks.
               It should work well with the stocks in FASTUP, FASTDOWN, LEVERAGE, HIGHIP21,
               MAXCP, MINCP, REDSELL and NEAR65. With this QuickSilver
               table displayed, you point the mouse at the symbol and click Graph.
               The Peercomm will also allow you to get stock data again from Dial Data. 

                 
                                    8/18/2015   70+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                            Go to www.tigersoft.com/HH/Index.html 

                        8/19/2015
        New Highs: NASD  10          NYSE 17
        New Lows:  NASD  115        NYSE 193
                                                 
            8/19/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks
     62 ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-19/MAXCP.htm

                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks
      156  -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-19/MINCP.htm
         
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     8/19/2015   Peerless remains on Red Sell 12*s.   

                        The signs of Deflation significantly worsened today as Crude Oil and
                        the Chinese YINN broke below key support.  Somehow, the Fed and
                        Janet Yellen have been maintaining the declines in Oil and Commodities
                        are "transitory".  Will the action today change their opinions or on Open
                        Market Committee votes?  It fact, it may be too late for them to make
                        much of a difference.

                        The Fed could come out in light of the Chinese and World Market's drop
                        top to new lows along with Oil and Commodities and say that they are rethinking
|                       their plan to raise rates in September.  So far, they have not.  This is is downright
                        scary.   I suspect Professionals may soon have no choice but to start using
                        leveraged short ETFs en masse on the major market indexes.  No one knows
                        how fast this could cause the DJI to decline.  

,                       The NYSE A/D Line is still in a falling trend and the 65-dma is now accelerating
                        downward.  With the DJI only down 5% from its highs and the bearish month
                        of September only weeks away, the risks seem much greater than
                        rewards for even the blue-chips.  A 10% decline from the DJI's
                        peak would take out the 17000 support.  The next support below
                        that is at 16000.

   


                        There is still some hope that the FED will change their collective
                        minds.  The Hourly OBV-DISI Line is showing some strength. 
                        But this comes after three months of severe bearish divergences
                        by it from the DJI.   Another minor rally to the DJI's falling 21-day (147-hour) ma.
                        is certainly a possibility.  But the up-day Volume in the broader SP-500
|                       remains too low to be expected to eat up much of its overhead resistance.
                        With the World's markets breaking down, look for more and more
                        lower openings.  At some point, Professionals may no longer try to
                        support the market and instead seek to take advantage of how
                        steep the downtrend in a Deflationary spiral could become using
                        all the wonderful new derivatives and leveraged ETFs they have
                        created for this occasion.



                        

 
                        The weak openings are being brought on by the troubles in the Chinese,
                        the Overseas and the Oil markets. YINN and OIL broke below key support
                        levels today.





                       
                                              
                                        The FED's Bubble World

                         Janet Yellen says when the FED is measuring "inflation" that she prefers not to
                         consider Oil Prices or Food Commodities.  Their trends are too "transitory"
                         and seasonal.  This may explain why she does not see Deflation now
                         as a problem and why apparently she will go along with a rise in interest rates
                         in September.  She  needs to look at the charts we see here .

                         If, in fact, the FED does stay on course and raise rates in September, and that's the
                         what seems most likely, it will be making the same mistakes they made in
                         1929 and 1937, when they chose to try to cool off excessive stock speculation
                         rather than worry about Deflation or how much Unemployment that would be
                         caused by raising rates when the World Economy or US GNP was already
                         weakening. 
                    
                         At best, this is a "defensive market".   But even dividend-paying stocks
                         and blue-chips could be in trouble now.  The upside potential looks very limited
                         with most stocks.   So, Sell when a stock breaks key support.  Watch the Closing Power
                         up-trends in your long positions. 

                         If Professionals do start selling the stocks that are still holding up, it will quickly
                         become too dangerous to hold them.  Long bull markets are like a game of
                         "musical chairs".   All the last men standing will be "bag holders", as old Joe
                         Granville used to say.  Use the 5-day ma trends with leveraged ETFs.  Meanwhile, 
                         most of our shorts in bearish MINCP stocks keep declining, as do OIL, GAS, YINN,
                         along with most Commodities and many Emerging Countries' stocks. 

                         The DJI has only fallen 5% from its peak so far.  A 10% decline, at a minimum,
                         should probably be expected.  It could be much worse. So, it's not too late
                         to Sell Short MINCP stocks.  Let me also recommend shorting the stocks that
                         qualify using the QuickSilver approach applied either to all stocks or to TEFS,
                         leveraged and un-leveraged.
                                   
          
                                                   Finding Short-Term Trades
                                      among The Weakest Plungers
                                     Using Tiger's "FASTDOWN" Group
                                and the new Tiger QuickSilver Program

                          QuickSilver lets you quickly find the stocks in fast-falling
                                5-day down-trends.  When the 5-day ma is rising at an annualized
                                rate of less than -250%, the Downtrend is most likely to continue. 

                                The odds in favor of a downtrend-resumption from the falling
                                5-day ma are greatest when Both the Opening and Closing Power
                                are FALLING and the current Accumulation Index is below -.20.
                                Look also at the charts where these conditions are true to see how
                                close the stock is to price support, resistance, or a breakdown.

                                What's also nice about QuickSilver is that it also gives the
                                pivot-points below which a closing the next day will turn down
                                the 5-dma.  Below are the top stocks examined this way.

                                Of course, the trick here is not to chase them too far above
                                their 5-day ma and to try to buy them on successful tests of the
                                5-day ma.  To narrow the search down further, very high IP21s
                                and AI/200 scores should usually be favored.  Also try to
                                pick stocks whose prices rise on rising, not falling, volume.  And,
                                of course, look at their charts.  These will also show you
                                the stocks' names.  Some industry groups will be
                                over-represented here; these should be favored. 



                                QuickSilver's most bearish picks are posted here:

C:\FASTDOWN - 08/19/15
                       Above $10.
                       BOTH FALLING
                       IP21<-.20
                       Bearish Daily Volume.
                       AI/200 under 70.

5-DMA ROC     Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
..............................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up        Daily Vol. notes
============================================================================================== 

C:\fastdown - 08/19/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        .......................................................................................... 
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes
========================================================================================== 
-722.3        MTR           10.35         11.5          12.17         -.87
-.41          15            Falling       Falling       .422          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-731.5        BPT           42.38         45.85         48.5          -2.39
-.42          42            Falling       Falling       .446          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-753.9        UCO           20.23         21.81         22.56         -1.89
-.27          64            Falling       Falling       .422          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-817.6        RMTI          11.69         12.13         11.54         -.43
-.21          69            Falling       Falling       .482          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1247.2       CPA           57.28         60.76         63.61         -2.67
-.41          61            Falling       Falling       .426          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 
                                                 Bearish Seasonality

                        Though the third year in the 4-year Presidential Cycle is normally quite
                        bullish, the median decline at some point from the DJI's peak to a
                        September or October bottom is 10% since 1945.  So far,
                        the DJI has only fallen 4% from its July peak.

                                  DJI's Declines in 3rd-4th Quarters of
                                         Third Year of Pres. Election

            1947  7/24//1947 6% decline to 7/1947
            1951  9/13/1951 7% decline to 11/8/1951
            1955  9/23/1955 10% decline to 10/10/1955
            1959  8/3/1959 9% decline  to 9/29/1959
            1963  10/23/1963 10% decline to 11/22/1963

            1967  9/25/1967 10% decline to 11/14/1967
            1971  9/7/1971 13.5% decline to 11/23/1971
            1975  9/8/1975 7% decline to 10/1/1975
            1979  10/5/1979 11.5% decline to 11/7/1979
            1983  7/26/1983 6% decline to 8/5/1983

            1987  8/25/1987 36.5% decline to 10/19/1987
            1991  8/7/1991 5% decline to 10/7/1991 
            1995  no declines
            1999  8/25/1999 11% decline to 10/18/1999 

            2003  9/18/2003 4% decline to 9/28/2003
            2007  7/19/2007 10% decline to 8/16/2007
                  10/19/2007 10% decline to 11/26/2007
            2011  7/21/2011 16% decline to 10/3/2011
            2015  7/16/2015 4% decline so far...
 
                          median decline = 10%

 
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