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                  9/21/2015   125+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                  9/21/2015
        New Highs: NASD  12     NYSE    5
        New Lows:  NASD  40   NYSE   59 
                                                 
          9/21/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5  
              These will be posted later tonight.      
         
       104-52  ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-21-2015/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         120 +81   -->  http://www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-21-2015/Bearish.html
                          Professionals used today's rally to short more stocks.
         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          9/21/2015     At this writing, the DJI is down more than 200 points in overnight
                               trading.  The usual suspects are the four horsemen of the
                               Deflationary Apocalypse: the bear markets in Commodities,
                               Oil/Gas, Overseas Markets and The Chinese stock market
                               in particular.  The US is trying to be the "last man standing".
                               But who will buy all the goods the corporations make when
                               average consumers all around the world and in the US, too,
                               are unable and already in deep debt?  And how much steeper
                               will the decline be now because of all the derivatives and
                               leveraged trading vehicles Wall Street has created?  The
                               Populist criticism of Wall Street is made much louder now by
                               the coming of the Pope to Congress. 

                               Short DIA and close out most long positions.  When biotechs
                               can no longer hold up, the stock market is in considerable trouble.                              

                               Thursday last week would have produced a Peerless Sell S9
                               if the DJI had closed up as much as 35 points on the day the Fed
                               announced it would leave rates unchanged.  Instead, it sold
                               off 214 points in the last hour of trading.  Are too many people
                               using Peerless?  As it is, we would only have gotten a Sell S9
                               or Sell S12 if we were to give an "experimental" S9/S12 on
                               a tagging the 3% upper band by the theoretical high of the day
                               when the P-I is negative and the IP21 is below +.02 and the
                               65-day ma is falling.  Taken as a whole, these cannot safely be used. 
                               There are too many 5% paper losses before there is a big decline.
                               So at this stage, Peerless is operating under a Sell S14, which
                               I have judged to be a "profit-taking" Sell since this is the only case
                               where the Sell S14 has occurred without the DJI having already
                               closed down more than 14.5%.  That may prove to have been
                               too cautious.

                                       The Thin Green Line is Only 120 Points below Today's Close

                               The Hourly DJI's rising minor channel has now seen its (green)
                               support tested 5 times.  This adds to its significance.

                               This THIN GREEN LINE crossing at 16400 now is all that separates
                               the stock market from a dangerous test of its lows at 15700.  If that
                               support at 15700 also gives way, the DJI will then be down more
                               than 14% from its recent highs.  The odds then will shift
                               sharply away from  the current decline being only an Autumn correction. 
                               A significant set of new lows would then be seen by many as ushering in a
                               bear market, a decline in which the DJI falls more than 19% from
                               its highs.  Since 1929, there have only been four cases where the
                               DJI fell between 14.5% and 18% from its highs and then recovered,
                               but there have been 15 bear markets of more than 19%, each one starting
                               when the DJI fell more than 14.5%.  This suggests the odds are 3:1
                               in favor of a bear market if the DJI closes much below 15700.
                               See TABLE A.



                            
                                Watch Uptrends of NYSE A/D Line and Tiger Accum. Index.



                                                          Very BEARISH Seasonality Now.
 
                             "Triple witching" Friday dropped the DJI 290 points on very high volume.
                             One might hope that all this options' trading distorted the market and that
                             we might see a recovery back upward.  Unfortunately, that is not what
                             usually occurs, at least going back 15 years.  Examine below what happens after
                             the peak at the end of the third week of trading in September, each year
                             since 1999: the DJI  fell significantly in 13 of 16 years, or 81.25% of the time.

                                                  DJI's Price Movement after Triple Witching Friday

                                   9/20/1999  10823.89     DJI fell to 10019.71 low on 10/15/1999
                                   9/22/2000  10847.37     DJI fell to 9975.02 low on 10/18/2000
                                   9/21/2001   8235.81     DJI rose strongly afterwards. 
                                                      (Peerless B16 called bottom after 9/11 sell-off.)
                                   9/19/2002  7942.39      DJI fell to 7286.27 on 10/9/2002
                                   9/19/2003  9644.82      DJI fell to 9275.06 on 9/30/2003

                                   9/17/2004  10204.75    DJI fell to 9749.99 on 10/25/2004
                                   9/16/2005  10641.94    DJI fell to 10216.59 on 10/13/2005
                                   9/22/2006  11508.50    DJI rose to 12316.54 on 11/20/2006
                                   9/21/2007  13820.19    DJI fell to 12743.44 on 11/26/2007.
                                   9/19/2008  11388.44    DJI fell to 8451.19 on 10/5/2008

                                   9/18/2009    9820.70    DJI fell to 9487.67 on 10/2/2009
                                   9/17/2010  10607.85    DI rallied strongly courtesy of Quantitative Easing.
                                   9/16/2011  11509.09   DJI fell to 10655.33 on 10/3/2011
                                   9/21/2012  13579.47   DJI fell to 12542.38 on 11/15/2012
                                   9/20/2013  15451.09   DJI fell to 14776.53 on 10/8/2013

                                   9/19/2014  17279.74   DJI fell to 16141.74 on 10/15/20
        

Sell Short DIA on a close below 163                                             Tiger Chart of DJI-30 Stocks                                      shows how weak their A/D Line is

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                              From last Thursday night....

      TABLE A       When Does A Decline Become Really Dangerous?
     

                             We have seen how the DJI recently did find support at the lowest possible level consistent
                             with it making only a corrective decline.  There were 30 "corrections", each producing
                             a decline of less than 14%.  This was more than two and a half times the number of bear
                             markets that brought a decline of more than 20%.

                             But now look at what happens when there is a DJI decline more than 14.5%.  There
                             were 15 cases where the decline was at least 19%.  These are highlighted
                             in red:   1929, 1937, 1940, 1946, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1973-4,  1977, 1981-2,
                            1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-3, 2007-9.  There were only four declines of 15% and 18%.
                            (1948, 1971, 1980 and 2017) and there were three declines of 19% to 21%:
                            1957, 1980 and 1998.  By contrast, there were 12 bear markets where DJI fell
                            more than 21%.  So, the odds are are almost 4:1 that any DJI decline of more
                            than 14.5% will see the DJI fall more than 19% from its highs.                           
 

               =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     Trouble Lies Ahead

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current reversing Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
  

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                   Additional Notes 
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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