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                  9/9/2015   125+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                   9/9/2015
        New Highs: NASD  14       NYSE   4
        New Lows:  NASD  29       NYSE  43
                                                 
          9/9/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5  
              These will be posted later tonight.               
       121   ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9/9/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         113     -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-9/MINCP.html
                      
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     9/9/2015          The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S14.  The DJI is still
                             above its 3.5% lower band.  So, there is still a chance that
                             we are seeing a normal "correction".  But there are many negatives.
                             If the DJI breaks its hourly uptrend-line now at 16124, look for
                             a quick test of 15700.  If the support there is broken by 100 points
                             on a closing basis, I would think we will see a much bigger decline.



                             I have suggested a hedged trading position using our Bullish MAXCP
                             and Bearish MINCP stocks.  Below see how the DJI did find support
                             at the lowest possible level consistent with it making a correction, and not
                             starting a bear market.  Any deeper decline tilts the odds  in favor of
                             it starting a new bear market.


                                                  Wild One-Day Rallies and Declines...

                             When a strong advance, like Monday's is completely reversed and routed
                             the next day after a very positive opening, bulls lose heart and we see how
                             resolved Professionals are to sell and sell short.  They know something
                             important.  I suspect it is that the odds now favor a rate hike by the Fed on
                             September 17th.   As you should know, our Tiger Closing Power is
                             the cumulative difference between each day's opening and its close.  This is
                             how we measure Professional buying.  Non-NY Professional buying is
                             measured by our Opening Power, the cumulative change in over-night
                             trading from the previous day's close to the next day's Opening. 

                             Closing Power bearishly turned down today, quite sharply.  We see this
                             in all the key ETFs and most of the really big tech and bank stocks.  See the
                             key charts of Closing Power charts of DIA, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, GOOG, GS
                             and JPM  for example at  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9/9/MAXCP.html        
                  .
                           

                             The whipsawing character of these violent one-day swings shows
                             the market has become dangerously illiquid.  The large daily swings also
                             show how truly dominant have become the big banks' computerized
                             trading programs.   But more than these things, the big swings and reversals
                             back up the next day play a more sinister role.  They set up the Public and many
                             of the more inexperienced traders and institutional players. They make them
                             think that all big sell-offs should be bought because of how often the market
                             seems to reverse the next day.  Like today,  the futures are up 90 points,
                             as I write this.   But when a big decline does come, it is these inexperienced buyers
                             on weakness who will be badly hurt.

                             Will big institutions continue to be able to hold up the market by accumulating
                             on weakness?  Doubtful... I'd say,  The Peerless Sell S14 was a signal to sell
                             into strength.  The Closing Power weakness now is distinctly bearish.  Professionals
                             are usually proven correct.  It is the direction of the Tiger Closing Power that
                             best predicts the real direction of the market. 

                             I have suggested very short-term traders watch the Hourly DJI uptrend
                             As long as it the DJI does not break below the uptrendline, I said that the
                             DJI should be able to rally back up to the resistance of its 21-day ma.  Well,
                             today's opening can very close to tagging the 147-hour (21-day ma).  So,
                             now, it may have to test for support. 

                             My view is that DJI will quickly retest its low closing at 15666 if the Hourly
                             DJI's uptrend is violated.  And if the DJI closes below 15600, it will fall much
                             lower.  While the odds of a DJI return to its recent highs are 77% based on
                             the DJI's history since 1928 of 10%-14% sell-offs from bull market highs,
                             the odds are much lower if the DJI sells off more than 14%.  Tomorrow
                             I will show all the cases of DJI declines of more than 14% from its highs. 

               =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     Trouble Lies Ahead

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current reversing Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
 
                                                          The FED Is The Key Now.
|
                       There is just too much uncertainty that the Fed will start raising rates for the market
                       to move much higher and this is complicated by the next Jobs' Report coming
                       out of Friday.   What the FED has artificially created in the way of a long bull market
                       built on free money to big banks, it could quickly take away,  if the recent 13.5% DJI
                       decline is any indication. There are those who tell us the short term bonds show only
                       a 22% chance that September will bring a rate hike.
                       (See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/upshot/jobs-forecast-is-another-reason-for-the-fed-not-to-raise-rates.html?action=click&contentCollection=Economy&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article )

                       I am not so sure the odds are not closer to 50%. I believe the meeting will be
                       quite contentious. The outspoken "hawks" and the "doves" are about equal in number.
                       Janet Yellen, the supposedly dovish Chairwoman, has been mysteriously quiet recently
                       and out of sight. She did not go to their annual Wyoming meeting to talk with the other
                       Fed Governors.   Has there been a rebellion against her?  Is she becoming more hawkish
                       so that she can remain in control.  She apparently sees herself as the
                       impartial chairwoman who states the "consensus" of views at the end of the
                       FOMC meeting.  She is cautious.  And a cautious person would probably
                       wait until the evidence is stronger and the opinions more conclusively in favor
                       of a rate hike.
                      
                       Still, only the New York FED Governor, Dudley, has spoken out recently
                       to advocate caution in the face of the extreme bear market in developing countries,
                       the Chinese market's meltdown, falling oil prices and falling commodity prices.
                       Several other Fed Governors are on record recently as favoring a rate hike soon,
                       despite the signs of world-wide Deflation and the economic downturns overseas. 

                       Once upon a time, I was interviewed by the CIA to be a Kremlinologist, one who
                       studied the divergent interests and pronouncements of the dozen or so members
                       of the Soviet Union's Presidium.  I think I still have an interest in the politics of
                       secretive power-elites.  So, today I made a list of all the FED members of the
                       Open Market Committee, those who will decide on September 17th, whether
                       to raise short-term rates and tried to find on the internet what exactly they had last
                       said on the subject.  Let me show you what I found.  The conclusion I draw from
                       this exercise is that there may well now be a majority for a rate hike, even though
                       a majority of the Open Market Committee are considered more dovish than hawkish.

                       I plan to keep this list of t he key Fed policy-makers handy.  I will try  to refer to it
                       each time one of these FED members makes a public statement.  We will want to
                       see how they may be shifting their position and their intra-committee alliances.
                     
                                               Members of Fed's Open Market Committee:
                                 (They decide "by consensus" whether to raise short-term rates.)

                        5 Doves: Dudley, Evans,  Rosengren, Brainard, Tarullo

                        3 Doves shifting in favor of a rate hike: Yellen, Williams, Lockhart

                        6 Hawks: Fischer, Lacker, Powell, Bullard, Mester, George

                      (  What is a hawk?  What is a dove?    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_hawk_and_dove )
                             In 2013, Business Week made the same break-down that I am attempting here.
                                    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-2013-fomc-member-profiles-2013-1?op=1
                             Deutche Bank offered an assessment of the two camps within the Fed at the end of 2015.
                                    http://snbchf.com/monetary-fiscal-policy/fed-its-fomc-composition/

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                 Notes from last night.
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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