wpe50.jpg (1913 bytes)      TigerSoft News Service    10/16/2009        www.tigersoft.com    
                                Other Free Tiger Blogs - http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/index.htm



                            UNEMPLOYMENT'S REAL STORY

        ENREPRENEURIAL CAPITALISM MUST NOT BE
   DEFINED BY AND DESTROYED BY UNFETTERED
   WALL STREET GREED, Mr. OBAMA!

                          

        
      WHAT YOU WON'T HEAR ON CNN OR CNBC!

           
Real unemployment statistics are not collected. Too embarassing. 
            The poor and unemployed are de-humanized.  Real unemployment
            is 50% above the official rate.  15.6% is a better estimate.  That's
            1 of every 7 workers in the US now.  There has to be a better way to
            maximize human potential!

            When was the last time you saw CNN or CNBC interview people
            wait in line for a job?   The fact is that unemployment disciplines
            workers.  It forces them to have to accept any job at poverty
            wages.  And full employment is largely a fantasy.   Since 1971,
            that 38 years ago, there have been only seven years when there
            was "full" employment, i.e. the rate of official employment was
            under 5%.  It will be years we get full employment again.
  Yahoo
            ran a story on 10/20/2009 "High Jobless Rate Could Be Permanent."

            "The job market is caught in a vicious circle: Without more jobs, U.S. consumers
             will have a hard time increasing their spending; but without that spending,
             businesses might see little reason to start hiring... 'I think the unemployment
             rate
will be permanently higher, or at least higher for the foreseeable future,'
             said Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com."

        
  Meanwhile Goldman Sucks just reported profits of 3.4 Billion,
             after paying saleries and bonues averaging $700,000 per employee.  
             JP Morgan just reported 3.6 billion in profits.   Obama's subservience
             to Wall Street is seen by all.  The socialists' view is becoming more
             and more Main Street's. It is often said that FDR saved capitalism by
             taming and regulating Wall Streets.  Obama should do the same.
             Wall Street greed is not capitalism.
 


                 HOW MANY MONTHS' MUST WE WAIT FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
            TO START TO GO DOWN AND WILL IT GO DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY?

                 SHOULD AMERICAN WORKERS BE EXPECTED TO WAIT THREE YEARS
            OR MUCH MORE FOR "FULL EMPLOYMENT"?

                A MASSIVE PUBLICS' WORK PROGRAM SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED NOW.
            LET BANKERS RAISE MONEY FOR INVESTORS NOW.  AND IMMEDIATELY
            PAY BACK ALL THEY OWE THE TREASURY.  AND LET THE PUBLIC PEER INTO
            THE SWEAThEART DEALS THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS WORKED OUT
            WITH THE BANK-HEDGE FUNDS THAT NOW DERIVE ALMOST ALL THEIR
            PROFITS FROM TRADING STOCKS.


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                                             by William Schmidt, Ph.D.

             Other TigerSoft Blogs on Closely Related Topics:
                      3/7/2008 - 
Why Is Bush Bankrupting The US
               
3/8/2008 - Seepless in San Diego
               
6/30/2008 -  TigerSoft's Approach for Job Finders
               
9/1/2008 -   Labor's Untold Story in The US
               
5/15/2009 - Obama Is 98% Fraud and 2% Backbone



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wpe16D.jpg (33251 bytes)


                   HOW MANY MONTHS' MUST WE WAIT
      FOR UNEMPLOYMENT TO START TO GO DOWN?

    "LAG"                   Stock Market Bottoms           Unemployment Peaks                            Results Buying
                                Charts are shown below.         Unemployment Data are shoiwn below. When Unemployment Drops
                                                                                                                                            To Next DJI High before
                                                                                                                                            DJI decline to lower band.
     -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     5 months                  June 1949                     October 1949                                     Nov 49  Gain =  19.4%
                                                                                                                                          DJI rose from 191
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 228 in June 1950 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     
     12 months                September 1953          September 1954                               Oct 1954  Gain =  21.7%
                                                                                                                                          DJI rose from 345
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 420 in February 1955      
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
    12 months               October 1957                July 1958                                           Aug 1958 Gain =  18.6%
                                                                                                                                          DJI rose from 506
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 600 in January 1959
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------        
    
7 months                 October 1960                May 1961                                            June 1961 Gain =  3.1%
                                    (Typical 3-4 year cycle broken by US War on Viet Nam)                DJI fell from 702 to 681
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 724 in August 1958
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------        
     7 months                  May 1970                        December 1970                               Jan 1971  Gain = 14.0%
                                                                                                                                          DJI rose from 837
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 950 in April  1971
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
    
6 months                  December 1974            May 1975                                           June 1975  Gain =  3.8%
                                    (Typical 3-4 year cycle broken.  Carter Adm. failed to bring much recovery)
                                                                                                                                          DJI rose from 840
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 872 in July  1975
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
     4 months                 August 1982                   December 1982                               Jan. 1983  Gain = 1.0%
                                    (Typical 3-4 year cycle broken.  No recovery to full employment. ) DJI rose from 1071
                                                                                                                                          and ralled to 1092   three days later
                                                                                                                                        It then fell to lower band and
                                                                                                                                         rallied from  1030 to 1250 in June 82

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     8  months               November 1991            June 1992                                         July. 1992  Gain = 3%
                                                                                                                                         DJI rose from 3295
                                                                                                                                         and ralled to 3393 in two wks..
                                                                                                                                         It then fell below lower band 
                                                                                                                                         to 3137 in October and
                                                                                                                                         rallied to 3978 in Jan 93

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
9  months                 October 2002                 June 2003                                         July 2003  Gain = 4.6%
                                                                                                                                         DJI rose from 9217
                                                                                                                                         and ralled to 9645 in Aug 2003 
     ====================================================================

     7 months' lag is typical.

    
9 months?      March 2009                      December 2009 ???????                   10% rally the the next
                                                                                                                                         peak before a decline to
                                                                                                                                         the lower band.
                                                                                                                                         But since 1975, the avg
                                                                                                                                         gain has only been 3.2%

                                                                                                                _____________________________________
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                                                                                                               _______________________________________

           
  HOW QUICK WILL THERE BE A REAL RECOVERY?


        Unemployment statistics should start dropping soon.  It has been seven months since
        the stock market turned up.  Typically, 7 months after a bottom by the Dow Jones Industrial
        Average, the rate of unemployment peaks, though in 1954 and 1958 it took a year.  The last
        two recessions, 1991-1992 and 2001-2003, did not bring an improvement for 8 and 9 months
        after the market's bottom.

        The real questions should be will there be much of a recovery?  And if not, what must the
        Government do this time around to bring about full employment.  If we take full employment
        to be under 5%, the answer is it could take a very long time.


                 HOW MANY MONTHS' MUST WE WAIT
     FOR "FULL" EMPLOYMENT, UNDER 5% UNEMPLOYMENT?
  
     
The statistics below show that it  will take years and years before we see full
         employment.  This in intolerable, and even more so, considering the trillions
         given the very bankers whose greed caused do much human misery.  A new
         economic system that guyarantees employment for all at a decent wage is
         obviously needed.  Employment should be a human right in the US.  Three
          years, if we are lucky, is far too long to have to wait for a job.  No wonder
          5% own 95% of America!  The Democrats and Obama refuse to face these
          inescapable conclusions.  This is disgraceful!


    "LAG"                   Stock Market Bottoms           Unemployment Drops below 5%
                                Charts are shown below.        

     13  months               June 1949                      August 1950 with "help" of Korean War.
     16 months                September 1953         January 1955
    
28 months               October 1957                February 1960
    
34 months                October 1960              July 1964
                                                           (Typical 3-4 year cycle broken by US War on Viet Nam)
     32 months                May 1970                       January 1973
    
6 months                  December 1974           May 1975
                                                           (Typical 3-4 year cycle broken.  Carter Adm. failed to bring much recovery)
     15 years!!!            August 1982                July 1997  
                                                           (Typical 3-4 year cycle broken.  No recovery to full employment. )
   68  months        November 1991           July 1997                               
    
35 months              October 2002                  August 2005
     ====================================================================


Unemployment Statustics from Dept of Labor: 1948-2009
            Green - "Full" employment
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec BACKGROUND
1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0  
1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6  
1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 WAR
1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 WAR
1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 WAR
1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5 WAR
1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0  
1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2  
1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2  
1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2  
1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2  
1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3  
1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6  
1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0  
1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5  
1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5  
1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0  
1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 WAR
1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 WAR
1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 WAR
1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 WAR
1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 WAR
1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1 WAR
1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 WAR
1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2 WAR
1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9 WAR
1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2 WAR
1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2  
1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8  
1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4  
1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0  
1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0  
1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2  
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5  
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8  
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3  
1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3  
1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0  
1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6  
1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7  
1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3  
1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4  
1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3  
1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3 WAR
1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4  
1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5  
1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5  
1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6  
1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4  
1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7  
1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4  
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0  
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9  
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7  
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0  
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7  
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4  
2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8  
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4  
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9  
2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2  
2009 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8        


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