TigerSoft - Serving All Investors since 1981. http://www.tigersoft.com/
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Real-Time Peerless Stock Market Timing:
Buy and Sell Signals - 1981-2012
(C) 2012 www.tigersoft.com and William Schmidt, Ph.D.
We are always looking for ways to imrove our software. So, we do tinker with
the Buy and Sell rules when we learn something that tests well back to 1928
or even earlier. But the basic signals have remained the same since 1981,
We do back-testing of the key current market conditions nearly every night.
This and the automatic Buys and Sells are a major part of what our Nightly Hotline
offers. Each night it also shows the stocks Insider and Professionals are
buying and selling the most steadily. $350 - Order form
Our old nightly HOTLINEs and BLOGs abundantly show that REAL-TIME
. our studies of market history and our automatic Peerless Buys and Sells
have paid off time and time again for our customers. No better case was
when our October 2nd, 1987 Hotline warned that a "Crash" was coming.
The same thing occurred in early 2000 and again in July 2007. Please read
our Blog on June 24, 2007
See also TigerSoft Predictions Have Made Lots of Subscribers Bundles.
The 1929 Crash: Could It Happen Again?
Yes- Absolutely.
PEERLESS DJIA CHART - OCTOBER 1987 CRASH
"Major Sell"
The
Buy signals were just as timely.
There are times when aggressive Buying is
justified. Peerless identified the market bottom
in March 2009 as such a time. It has been bullish for the period since, with the
exception of
about a few weeks in October 2009. April-June 2010 and July-October 2011. The
automatic
Buys
and Sells that Peerless gives on the DJIA has made the difference. And they can be
super-imposed
on nearly all stocks and ETFs. The results of the real-time signals in 2011-2012
were
great. Amazing, actually. We cannot guarantee results like this every year!
Real-Time
Peerless Signals: 2011-2012
Below, the Buys and Sells on Peerless are shown on the chart of the QQQQ-Nasdaq-100 in
2009.
The gain there was more than 100% buying and selling short on the opening the day after
the Peerless signal for the time shown.
You can see the Peerless
signals superimposed on the SPY since 1981 elsewhere on
this site. The annualzed rate of return, going long and short is more than
30%. We realize
this is an astounding figure. Read on and you'll see this in consistent our real
time track
record, shown here, since 1981. You'll also see where we occasionally modified
Peerless
to take into account new research. Now with data back to 1915, we can seasonal
patterns,
for example, that we missed when we originally wrote Peerless based on only the data
for 1970-1981. On the other hands, the core concepts of Peerless derived just from
the
study of 1970-1981 have worked amazingly well real-time since 1981 and they worked very
well in the period 1915-1970. Not to use such reliable signals would, in our
opinion, be
a very big mistake. Stock market tops and bottoms can be called. And it just
is not that
hard, as I think, you will see even in this introduction.
Use Peerless to learn when you must get out of the market or go
aggressively short.
These
are times when Buying and Holding is Very Dangerous! We easily escaped the 1987
Crash
and forsesaw the 2000-2003 bear market. The same signals showed us when to sell at
the
top
as the DJI fell more than 52% between October 2007 and March 2009.
Users of Peerless and/or our Hotline made a lot of money in this
period by selling and selling short.
Peerless
was designed not only to prevent losses in a bear market, but to help traders have even
more
buying
power at the bear market's bottom than when the bear market started.
DJI -2008 and Real-Time Peerless
Signals
The History of Peerless
Stock Market Timing:
Buy and Sell Signals -
1981-2010
Peerless Market Timing Software
Market Timing Matters! 1915-2012
Book/Software: Major
Buys/Sells.
Special $495 Order here.
by William Schmidt, Ph.D.
(C) 2012 www.tigersoft.com
Peerless Stock Market Timing was invented in 1981, based on a close computerized study
of 1970-1982 data which I hand-entered into an Apple Computer. I remember the first
sale I made. It was in September 1981 in a brokerage office in Albuquerque. I
showed them
the way the P-Indicator was improving even as the DJI kept declining. I said it
should bring
a rally to the upper band. (I initiated the use of bands built a fiixed percentage
away from
a moving average.) It did and I made a sale a few days later.
A few years later, I reviewed the data back to 1965 and added the very important
Sell S12.
Between 1990 and 2006, only small changes were made. But starting in 2007, I began a
very exhaustive study of the DJI's data back to 1928 and where possible back to 1915,
though only the DJI's closes and daily volume were available from 1915-1928. This
older
data showed quite clearly the importance of seasonality and gave me important clues about
how to recognize the onset of a 1930s style depression and deflation. The signals'
changes
have always been reported in the TigerSoft/Peerless Hotline as they were added.
Generally, the signals grew out of my own background, reading and observations. A
big part of my drive
to succeed here came from losing money in the 1978 October Massacre while on vacation.
Another
part stemmed from seeing illegal insider trading on Wall Street first hand and wanting to
not be beholden
to others, who only trusted networked insider information. I have an abiding
interest in history, mathematics
and technical analysis. There are few pursuits where one can better continuously
test and sharpen
one's predictive skills than in the stock market. Perhaps, its does help keep one's
wits as one
gets older, too. In the process, I have created tools which have proven their value
to thousands of
customers for years and years. I invite you to discover what I have learned over 28
years...
.
See also: October 28, 2008 The Biggest US
Stock Market Declines: 1916-2008
Here is a year-by-year review of the real-time Peerless Buys and Sells since 1981.
You will see how
durable they have been. Peerless has had a few new signals added when circumstances
and back-testing
showed it was warranted. Our Peerless Hotline (on-line each night) discusses the
signals as they
occur and are simultaneously introduced. Many nights I find I can take unusual
market behavior and
find enough historical parallels to make very good predictions, simply based on historical
probabilities
of 65% -75%. Note that the Peerless Buys and Sells pass a higher standard.
They typically
profitable 85% of the time or more, going back to 1928 or earlier. ..
Real Time Signals: 1981-2009
1981
The first sale of Peerless Stock Market Timing Software took place in Albuquerque in
September 1981.
I walked into a brokerage office with an Apple II+ under my arm and showed how Peerless
worked
and told them it had just given a buy signal. This was the day before the Buy B17,
as now displayed.
The signal occurred because the P-Indicator (proprietary) had improved as the DJI declined
and made
a new low near 820. The market rose as I had predicted and a few days later I had my
first customer.
The DJI, I found, typically trades within a band a fixed percentage above and below a key moving
average. I was the first person, I know of, to use price bands. So, I could claim that I invented them,
if anyone cares. They have become very popular. In March 1982, the DJI fell to new lows in February
and March. The P-Indicator did not confirm the price lows by making lower lows, itself. The February Buy B8
reflects that divergence. Rallies don't always start immediately. But you can see that a rally did develop
in March and April. The Sell S9 is a classic Peerless Sell. It was premature. Some are and some are not.
We have rules that tell us what to do when the signal does not work right away. The Hotline discusses them.
A new Peerless manual will, too, when it is published. Note how prices make new minor highs in April
and May 1982 with the P-Indicator not making corresponding new highs. There we call "divergences".
They tell us a to expect a decline. This concept of divergences jumped out at me from looking back
closely at the data from 1972 to 1982, the basis of the original Peerless.
In July 1982, I went to Denver to see a stock broker with Merrill Lynch who said he wanted to
buy the Peerless program. I told him of the July Sell S9s. He said I should come back the next
day and buy the software. I showed up. But he took a day off and did not buy the software.
But the signal I told him worked out. Sure enough, the DJI retreated back to the lower band.
The DJI fell just below 780 to a false new low and then quickly recovered. Our P-Indicator
had shown that it was a false decline and we should Buy. That was the Buy B8 in the chart below.
Soon afterward, word spread that interest rates would finally be dropped by the Fed. The
market took off. Note the Buy B12 and B13 signals. These were added at this time, after
back-testing for the 1970s showed that they tested well. One of the key conditions for the
Buy B12 and Buy B13 is a sudden upward explosion in trading volume. That is readily displayed
with the Peerless charts. Above all, notice how many Peerless Buys there were. This was taken
at the time to be very, very bullish. And it was. This was the start of the long upswing from
780 to 14150 in 2007.
The multitude of major Peerless Buys showed how bullish the market was at the end of
1982. This was the start of the long bull market that only ended in 2001. Each numbered
signal has its own track record. The Buy B12 is the most bullish of all the Peerless signals.
Price trendlines are easy to draw with Peerless. The Peerless manual will discuss which ones
are most reliable.
is only associated with a minor decline to the lower band. It's the occurrence of multiple Sells
that longer term investors must be wary of.
By January 1984, there had been 3 major Sells in 7 months. This often setups up a more
significant decline. Note how the Peerless software lets you put a vertical line on the chart to show
the key values for the specified date. Sell S9 and S12 signals are very bearish if a key support
level breaks soon after them.
See how the jump in trading volume fueled the August rally in 1984. Buy B10s tell us that the
upper price band will be exceeded.
Again, you can see how Buy B10s tell us the market is in a strong uptrend. The Buy B4
which occurs at the upper band gives the same message. Again, I emphasize that these
signals were all in the original Peerless.
In October 1985, Peerless gave a bad signal. It was soon reversed. The false S9 signal came about
because of the sudden jump in General Foods, then a component in the DJIA. It was bought out
by Phillip Morris. At the time, we warned subscribers that this was an anomally and more evidence
was needed before we would be selling. When upward momentum takes hold, especially in all-time
high territory, it best to hold tightly. The Buy B4s and B10s are usually associated with points just
before a powerful uptrend.
Peerless teaches us not to be stubborn. Sometimes a signal is wrong. Accept it and trade with
the current signal. The bulge of the P-Indicator well into positive territory is bullish.
This was a year of market swings that went beyond the normal bands. By itself, going past the
bands is not a reliable signal. Our manual will show you many important aspects of this year's
price behavior that are lessons elsewhere.
In June 1987, we had a bad Sell signal. It was soon reversed by a Buy and the DJI rose much more.
This was the year Peerless made a name for itself. It perfectly predicted the huge October decline.
It did so with multiple Sell signals on the same day. In addition, the October S9 was the third set
of such signals in 6 months. This is usually very bearish. Don't forget that. The Buy B16 was added
a few years later, when I realized that the DJI when its under duress tends to fall a certain amount.
In January 1988, I recall speaking to a large group of investors in San Diego. I told them
we had just had a series of Buy B9s. I believed the market would go substantially higher,
even though the headlines in the Wall Street Journal were about layoffs at brokerages.
This was a year of rebuilding after the October 1987 Crash. The market was on very good behavior,
moving back and forth, as it turned out, between bands 3 standard deviations away from a least squares line.
We do not use this tool. But you can play with it, using Peerless.
If there is no Peerless Sell signal after a major Buy, assume the market will still go higher. Many
Peerless reversing Buys are held for more than 6 months.
Many of our Peerless users were waiting for a new Sell S9 to buy puts and go short after a big advance.
The October 1989 Sell S9 worked well. But the DJI quickly righted itself in what we call the
"sweet spot". Buy our software and we will tell you how we define the sweet spot.
These were very good signals that we got real-time. It was so good, we ran ads in Barrons with
this chart.
You will want to learn how to some chart patterns, like head and shoulders patterns. They augment
Peerless signals. 1990 was a great year. I remember relishing the ad the signal would make in Baron's,
which we ran.
The Buy B12 and B10 take-off signal made the market very profitable in January 1991. Recall how
bullish these signals had been on earlier occasions.
