TOWARD A PROFITABLE TRADING    
     STRATEGY FOR NEWMONT (NEM)
                    1990-2009 
                                                   3/20/2009      
    
 
                                                           By William Schmidt, Ph.D.   
                             Send any comments or questions  to    william_schmidt@hotmail.com   
  www.tigersoft.com
                                             ( All rights are strictly reserved.  (C) 2009 William Schmidt, Ph.D.

                         For $125 we will apply this study to a different stock
            and suggest any supplemental rules that seem warranted.

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Newmont Gold seems a good stock to trade when the US
           Federal Government is busy printing and borrowing trillions to
           bailout banks and stimulate the economy to help make up
           for the loss of private sector jobs.  The strategy advocated
           here should not be too taxing to understand or to apply for a
           TigerSoft user.  A special Seminar in San Diego will be
           scheduled if there is enough interest in applying this system
           to work through all the trades.  The techniques could be
           readily and profitably applied to other stocks.  No effort
           has been made to develop such a study for any other stock.
          
              Emotions are what gets in the way of profitable trading.
           The approach here is objective.  The technical trading
           rules are straightforward enough, so that different individuals
           would agree on their interpretation. 

              Our contention is that buying and holding is very risky.  So,
           we strongly advocate using stop losses.  Perfection is not
           possible in the stock market.   When a loss starts getting too
           big, SELL - for goodness sakes.  It can save you a hundred
           thousand dollars!  Buy it back when our internal strength
           indicators are saying the decline is over. 

              The role of Peerless Stock Market Timing's major Buys and
           Sells is hardlyaddressed here.  But clearly, a break of key support
           following a series of major Sells by Peerless on the DJI should
           be used to sell out.   What happened to NEM in 2008 also happened
           in 1987 after multiple Sells and a support failure.  No stocks,
           not even run-for-the-hills gold stocks, survived the October
           1987 or the 3rd Quarter 2008 massacres.  In October 1987
           Peerless gave a 4th major Sell in 9 months.  That set up the
           huge decline in stocks generally and NEM, too.  See the chart
           below.
                                             NEWMONT in 1987
                                                                                    
Major
                                                                                       Sell

          NEM87A.BMP (1023798 bytes)


              What I like about the system here is its relative simplicity.
            It uses automatic Buys and Sells, Closing Power trends, the
            Tiger Accumulation Index, well-known chart pattern theory
            and, not least of all, is is tested over a 19+ year period here.
    

  

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         Rules for Trading NEM Profitably

 
1. Wait for Buy B28 using Stochastic-60-K-Line falls below 20 and turn up.
      Then Buy NEM when either Blue Tiger Closing Power breaks its downtrend or moves back above its own
       21-day ma. This would have meant buying a little above 34.  See heavy purple line in late April.
 
  2. Take profits at the old old highs if there has been an intervening decline of 20% or more.  (one option)
     
  3. Alternatively, watch for the next Sell S28 (Stochastic-60-K-Line rises above 80 and turns down).
      Then Sell NEM when the Blue Tiger Closing Power moves up above its downtrend or moves back above
       its own 21-day ma.  This would have meant selling NEM at 40 in August..

4. If a purchase turns into a loss of more than 10%,   consider selling  and re-Buying on the next Action-Buy,
      either the break in the Closing Power trendlines and or its surpassing its 21-day ma.  See 1992, 1998

  5. Aggressive Buy - Buy on a successful test of a rising (blue) 50-day ma when the Tiger Accumulation Index
      has recently shown a bulge past +.25 .  (1993)   Buy at the 50-day ma when the Accumulation Index is
      steadily positive and frequently reaches +.25.   Closing Power should be in a steady uptrend. (2003)

  6. Aggressive Buy - Buy when the blue Closing Power moves above its own flat, well-tested (3x or more)
      resistance line.   May 1995, August and September 2007,

  7. Aggressive Sell  - Sell when the blue Closing Power moves below above its own flat, well-tested (3x or more)
       support line.   September 1995

  8. Aggressive Short Sale - Sell short on challenge of high or new high with the Tiger Accumulation Index in red,
       negative territory, showing heavy distribution and insider selling.

  9. Aggressive Sell - Sell NEM when the stock doubles from its lows in a month.   See 1998.

10. Aggressive traders' buy when prices break above well-tested flat resistance.  A close above such flat
      resistance should bring another 10%-20% advance, just as happened in November 2005 and October 2007.
      Traders, note that there is always the possibility of a false breakout/.

11.  Questionable - Aggressive Sell - Sell after NEM rises 50% in two weeks in a highly speculative market. 1999.

1990
         Rules for Trading NEM Profitably:
  1. Wait for Buy B28 using Stochastic-60-K-Line falls below 20 and turn up.
  Then Buy NEM when either Blue Tiger Closing Power breaks its downtrend or moves back above its own
  21-day ma. This would have meant buying a little above 34.  See heavy purple line in late April.
 
  2. Take profits at the old old highs if there has been an intervening decline of 20 or more.  (one option)
      This would have meant selling at 43.  When placing a Sell at an old high, know that others will do this. 
      So, if 47 is the old high,  place the Sell GTC order 1/2 below that. Here 46.5 would have gotten you
      out right at the top.  See 1994.
 
  3. Alternatively, watch for the next Sell S28 (Stochastic-60-K-Line rises above 80 and turns down).
  Then Sell NEM when the Blue Tiger Closing Power moves up above its downtrend or moves back above
   its own 21-day ma.  This would have meant selling NEM at 40 in August..

  4. Repeat rules for Step 1 above.  This would have meant buying at 29 in November.    Confidence to
buy might have properly been gained by noting the bullish divergences between the price new lows in
December and the rising blue Closing Power and the rising Accumulation Index.
NEM-90.BMP (1440054 bytes)
1991    Use the same rules for buying and selling posted above for 1990, namely watch for the Stochastic-60
            buys and sells followed by an action-Buy or action-Sell based on the break in the Closing Power trendlines
            and or its surpassing its 21-day ma.
wpe14DD.jpg (81926 bytes)
1992   Use the same rules for buying and selling posted above for 1990, namely watch for the Stochastic-60
            buys and sells followed by an action-Buy or action-Sell based on the break in the Closing Power trendlines
            and or its surpassing its 21-day ma.

            The August Buy of NEM at 38 in August turns into a loss of 8 points by November.  This is more
            than 20%.  It would have been a lot easier on the nerves to have worked with a Sell Stop Loss
            when the stock fell more than 10% below the purchase price.  Re-buying it when the Closing Power
            rises above its down-trendline and surpasses it own 21-day ma would have meant Buying at  32.
NEM-92.BMP (1440054 bytes)
1993   
              The Buy at 38 in September using the combination B28 + Action Buy rules was profitable.
          But an aggressive Buy rule might also have been applied successfully here.

          Aggressive Buy - Buy on a successful test of a rising (blue) 50-day ma when the Tiger Accumulation Index
          has recently shown a bulge past +.25 or is rising steadily toward just below +.25.
wpe14DE.jpg (94345 bytes)
1994
               1994 offered opportunities to use the rules above.

                When placing a Sell at an old high, know that others will do this.  So, if 47 is the old high,
                 place the Sell GTC order 1/2 below that. Here 46.5 would have gotten you out right at the top.

NEM-94.BMP (1130454 bytes)
1995      This year offered opportunities to use the rules above.

              Aggressive Buy - Buy when the blue Closing Power moves above its own flat, well-tested (3x or more)
              resistance line.   May 1995

              Aggressive Sell l- Sell when the blue Closing Power moves below above its own flat, well-tested (3x or more)
              support line.   September 1995
NEM-95.BMP (1440054 bytes)
1996   Aggressive Short Sale -Challenge of high or new high with the Tiger Accumulation Index in red,
           negative territory, showing heavy distribution and insider selling.
NEM-96.BMP (1130454 bytes)
1997     Usually buying on a price-trend-break when the down-trendline is well-tested often produces a quick rally. 
             This can be considered an aggressive Buy when there has previously been a Buy B28..
NEM-97.BMP (1440054 bytes)
1998    When a loss is more than 10% on a Buy, it usually is safer to sell and buy back when the
             Closing Power breaks its downtrend.

             Aggressive Sell - Sell NEM when the stock doubles from its lows in a month.
NEM-98.BMP (1440054 bytes)
1999   Aggressive Sell - Sell when NEM rises 50% in three weeks.
NEM-99.BMP (1125654 bytes)
2000
NEM-00.BMP (1120854 bytes)
2001
NEM-01.BMP (1440054 bytes)
2002  Aggressive Buy - Buy on successful test of well-tested price support when the Tiger Closing Power
          breaks its downtrend.
NEM-02.BMP (1440054 bytes)
2003   Buy at the 50-day ma when the Accumulation Index is steadily positive and frequently reaches +.25.
           Closing Power should be in a steady uptrend.
NEM-03.BMP (1440054 bytes)
2004
NEM-04.BMP (1440054 bytes)
2005
wpe14DF.jpg (76154 bytes)
2006

NEM-06.BMP (1440054 bytes)
2007  Aggressive Buys - when Closing Power broke out above flat resistance.
NEM-07.BMP (1440054 bytes)
2008
NEM-08.BMP (1440054 bytes)

2009   Note the use of the 10% stop loss in September as stock broke below 40 and re-Buy when Closing
           Power's down-trendline was exceeded in November.

            Stock is now (3/20/2009) back to its old highs after more than a 20% decline.  This usually warrants
            a Sell.  However, there is a flat and well-tested price resistance at 45.  A close above that should
            bring another 10%-20% advance, just as happened in November 2005 and October 2007..
wpe14E0.jpg (80967 bytes)