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last updated `10/4/2010
WHAT A BUY OUT LOOKS LIKE BEFORE
THE TAKEOVER IS ANNOUNCED
1) Insider Buying 2) Professional Buying 3) Public Selling
VRNT - on 7/20/2010 @20.42
HOW TO SPOT A COMING TAKE-OVER BID
(C) 2010 William Schmidt, Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com 9/14/2010
When one company buys out another it first discusses the possibilities with its
Wall Street bankers, its lawyers and accountants and often the Board of DIrectors
of the company being bid for, at least to feel them out. These are the insiders
whose "insider buying" we detect. They are seldom required to post their purchases
with the SEC in other companies unless their buying is massive..
Rarely does the SEC police the "insider buying" that a takeover bid usually engenders,
except perhaps to look at the option trading before the accouncement. Usually, the SEC
only takes up a case where the insider buying of options is obvious and egregious.
Most of the time, the SEC does not want to challenge the big players on Wall Street.
It is far more likely to accomodate Wall Street professionals, for example, as it did when it
changed the short-selling rules in June 2007 to make aggresive professional short selling
much easier, conveniently for Wall Street right before the 2007-2009 bear market.
I have wrtten a number of essays on complicity of the SEC with Wall Street criminals.
and the Crash of 2008=2009. They will show, I think, that investors should not rely
upon the SEC to level the playing field for the public investor.
June 28, 2007 Who's Guarding The Investors' Hen House?. SEC Chairman Cox?
August 15, 2007 The SEC Role in The 2007 Market Crash
11/19/2008 The Role of ULTRA ProShares EYFs in the Bubble and the Crash..."The current
SEC is clearly in cahoots with criminal bear raiders."
More and more, the SEC seems to only pick a case of insider trading that is easy to prove
where the insider trading profits are very big. Insiders realize this and they buy and
sell with little fear that the SEC will penalize them unless they are particularly careless.
Lawyers do bring class action suits against some CEOs that Sell based on unreleased
and material insider knowledge, But I have not heard of class ation law suits against insiders
who bought heavily before a stock rose.
It may be human nature to show off their insider status or it may be simple greed,
but you can usually count on some of the insiders to quietly tell their friends and trading
associates about the stock that is going to be bid for. Wall Street is filled with analysts
and stock brokers who trade inside information with each other for a living. Secrets like
a takeover-bid are next to impossible to keep silent about.
It is all this insider buying that TigerSoft picks up on. We nearly always spot tell-tale bulges
of insider buying in the stock's TigerSoft Insider Charts, first from our invention, the Tiger
Accumulation Index and second from the stock's rising Professional Closing Power that leads
such stocks to new highs.
I emphasize we are outsiders. We do not know who the buyers are. We do not know how
much they will offer to buy a compnay out. And we do not know if the bid will be
accepted. Even so, we still can make big money regularly using Tiger's Insider Trading charts.
TIGERSOFT INSIDER TRADING CHARTS MAKE IT EASY.
> See which rumors should NOT be trusted
> "Someone always knows"
How To Spot Explosive Super Stocks Early in Their Move
Killer Short Sales in Any Market
> Because Professionals Run and Rig Stocks and the Market more than ever,
TigerSoft also shows Public versus Professional Buying and Selling
> Note the industry areas being focused on for buy-outs.
UNCA - Unica - biopharmaceutical company
Unica Corporation provides enterprise marketing management and on-demand marketing solutions to financial services, insurance, retail, telecommunications, and travel and hospitality industries worldwide.
CRXL - CRUCELL - biopharmaceutical company
RDWR - RADWARE
Radware Ltd. provides application delivery and network security solutions to banks, insurance companies, manufacturing and retail, government agencies, media companies, and service providers worldwide.
ARST - ARC SIGHT
ArcSight, Inc. provides compliance and security management solutions that protect enterprises and government agencies.
NZ - NETEZZA
Netezza Corporation provides data warehouse, analytic, and monitoring appliances to enterprises, mid-market companies, and government agencies
AKAM - AKAMAI Technoiogies
Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services for accelerating and improving the delivery of content and applications over the Internet in the United States and internationally.
MFE - MCAFEE
McAfee, Inc. operates as a security technology company that secures systems and networks worldwide.
NOVL - Novell
AIPC - AMERICAN ITALIAN PASTA
DDRX - DIEFRICH COFFEE
SWWC - SOUTHWESTERN WATER,
More will be posted here. Check back often
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HOW TO SPOT A COMING TAKE-OVER BID
BEFORE IT IS ANNOUNCED
1. Look for a bulge of the TigerSoft Accumulation above the
"Insider Buying" Threshold and Major Buys
2. An Extremely Bullish Divergence: a Rise in the (BLUE) Tiger Professional-Closing
Power When Prices Fall.
EXAMPLE J&J Bids $2.3 Billion for Crucell The Wall Street Journal (Fri, Sep 17)
1. TigerSoft Accumulation Index Shows "Insider Buying"
and TigerSoft Shows Major Buys
9/27/2010 Example - I.B.M. to Buy Unica for $451.7 Millionat New York Times(Mon, Aug 16)
Under the terms of the deal, I.B.M. will pay $21 a share, a whopping 120 percent premium to Unicas
closing share price of $9.55 on Thursday
9/14/2010 Example - IBM or HP to Buy Radware: Reportat TheStreet.com(Tue, Sep 14)
(2) Rise in the Tiger Professional-Closing Power When Prices Fall
Tiger's CLosing Power Makes A New Ahead before Price Does.
Latest Example - Aug 19, 2010 ... Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) has agreed to purchase McAfee, Inc.
(NYSE: MFE) for $7.7 billion ($48/share
SOUTHWEST WATER BOUGHT OUT AT $11/Share
SIGNIFICANT PROFESSIONAL BUYING
SHOWS SOMEONE KNOWS SOMETHING
VERY BULLISH ABOUT THIS STOCK.
BUYOUT AT $11.