||Tiger Software 's
Includes software. Data
and Hotline for 3 months.
William Schmidt, Ph.D.
858 273 5900
Peerless Stock Market Timing
STOCK MARKET TIMING HERE.
April 2008 - March 2009 Trading Gain on DIA
Peerless'es Buys and Sells on the would have gained a trader 113% on the DIA in the
April 2008 to March 2009. Here are the trades. Our software shows what would
happened starting with $10,000 and taking each trade. Here we assume that each trade
slippage (commissions and differences between bid and ask) of $40 with each trade)
the trades are taken at the close the day of the signal. Had the trades been taken
at the next
day's opening, the gains would have been +96%. It should be noted that our Hotline
improved on some of these trades, such as covering the short sale on DIA on 3/9/2009
well below the next day's Buy signal at 6926.49.
5/1/2008 Sell Short DIA @ 129.96 using
9/15/2008 Cover Short DIA and buy DIA @109.8 using
account's new value of $11,551.25
9/22/2008 Sell DIA and Sell Short DIA @ 110.5 using
account's new value of $11624.89
10/8/2008 Cover Short DIA and buy DIA @91.4 using account's
new value of $13634.26
10/14/2008 Sell DIA and Sell Short DIA @ 93.67 using account's new
value of $13972.89
10/28/2008 Cover Short DIA and buy DIA @91.14 using account's new value
11/5/2008 Sell DIA and Sell Short DIA @ 91.85 using
account's new value of $14462.07
11/21/2008 Cover Short DIA and buy DIA @80.54 using account's new value
1/29/2009 Sell DIA and Sell Short DIA @ 81.53 using
account's new value of $16442.52
3/10/2009 Cover Short DIA and buy DIA @69.14 using
account's new value of $18941.27
3/27/2009 Sell DIA and Sell Short DIA @ 77.81 using
account's new value of $21316.46
Had these signals been used to trade the SPY for this period at the openings the next day,
the gain would
have been 118.52%. For the QQQQ, the gain would have been 110.45%.
allows one to superimpose the Peerless signals on any other chart. When you
do this, you will
quickly see the enormous value of Peerless.
Below is the DJI chart on which the signals were based.
Peerless 2007 DJI Chart
Buys and Sells Gain =
You do not have to suffer through declines in the stock market. And you do not
need to wonder if it's safe buy. Peerless can show you exactly when to get
out of the market.
It has done that, REAL-TIME, in early 1981, January
1984, October 1987,
July 1990 and at the tops in 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008 and 2009.
Peerless can show you
when it's safe to buy, just as it did real-time August 1982,
July 1984, December 1987, October 1990, January 1995, October 1997, October 1998
and March 2003 when major Buys occur.
Peerless can be
used by traders of general market ETFs, S&P Futures and most stocks, too.
Here are the reversing Buys and Sells since 2005. Investors will need to undertand
use the past track record of each signal and particular signals in combination to get a
of when the moves will be very big. See more below.
Recent Buys and Sells of Peerless
------ ----- ---
BUY 4/21/2005 10219
SELL 5/5/2006 11578
BUY 6/15/2006 11015
SELL 6/30/2006 11150
BUY 7/18/2006 10799
SELL 1/5/2007 12398
SELL 7/17/2007 13971
SELL 9/24/2007 13759
BUY 11/14/2007 13223
SELL 12/6/2007 13619
(Note: this was third set of major sells in 6 months.
Very bearish. See below.)
SELL 3/24/2007 12549
BUY 9/15/2008 10918
SELL 9/22/2008 11016
SELL 11/5/2008 9139
BUY 11/21/2008 8046
SELL 1/29/2009 8149
BUY 3/10/2009 6926
as of 6/15/2009
When Do Biggest Moves
Here's The Key Pattern We Look for
The biggest sell-offs and bear markets come after there has been three or
more series of
major Sell signals over eight, or so months. You can see by October 1987, there had
three separate Sell S9 and S12 sets. Look at the chart below. Then
compare it with the
recent 2007-2008 case.
=========== 1987 Crash Was Preceded by Three Sets of Sell S9
and Sell S12s ================
The breakdown below 2500 (important support from previous lows) in October meant that
a severe decline
was coming soon. From July 2007 to March 2008, there had been
four sets of
major sells. All the worst declines in the stock market since 1942, which is far
as we can get
some of the key data to produce Buys and Sells, showed this pattern: 1959-1960,
1960, 1969-1970, 1973-1974,
1981-1982, 1987, 1990-1991, 2000-2003. There's
more we can
say. But that
should be enough to get some of you to start using Peerless.
=========== 2008 Crash Was Preceded by Four Sets of Major
Peerless Sells ================
Peerless Major Buys and Sells Will Help You Trade Nearly Everything.
Nearly all markets move up and down with the major Peerless
signals. You certainly can
this principle was true this year, 2008. Nothing has escaped the bear.
Our research in this
area is substantial. See the work we did on this regarding how well Peerless Buys and Sells traded the
Fidelity Sector funds, back in 2004. No matter what you trade,
Peerless will help you time
the many intermeditate-term moves. The only occasional exceptions are
oil and gas, gold
Peerless Is Simple and Automatic
Peerless is simple and automatic. No interpretation is required of its
signals. Buy on a red Up-Arrow
"B" Signal, like a "B9". Later sell on a red Down-Arrow
"S" Signal, like an "S9". The signals would
normally be taken on the next day, at the opening. We have done many studies showing
the value of
using these signals over time. The signals beat buy and hold handily. Always,
one would have used
them to get before a bear market would have dropped your holdings dramatically.
Always, we were
able to take advantages of bull markets. See the difference, the older Peerless
would have meant to
a typcial retirement account. The newer (just released) Peerless is more effective
25 additional years. The older rules were validated and some new Buys and Sells have
that take into account seasonality.
.. Plan for your Returement
Originally written in 1981,
there were then 10 Buy signals and 10 Sell signals. Some of these
had to be interreted. That is not true now. Since 1981, we have also added a
few new signals.
But all the basic rules have worked superbly at the criticial tops and bottoms.
The October 1987 top was called perfectly with the original
system. So would
this year's top. In the 1990s, we came to appreciate the importance of Tiger's
Accumulation Index for calling major tops. Its negative and positive divergences
produced excellent signals.
In 2005, preparatory to a new book on Peerless, I started
to back test the programs further
back than 1966. Using NYSE Advance amd Decline data back to 1942, I refined
more by introducing market seasonality. It should be noted that the
Accumulation Index has
been tested back to 1928, the earlier point for which we can get data. Its bearish
would easily have let someone back then see that 1929 was a major top with severely
------------------------- Heavy Red Distribution
before 1929 Crash -------------------------
More links on
Peerless Real-Time Signals: 1981-2008
Bear Markets and Their Bottoms' Charts: 1915-2008
Buying and Selling, the DJI-30 or an equivalent investment:
Using Peerless would have turned $100 in 1965 into $89,600 in 2007.
This is the equivalent of +17.5 %/year. Making
this much a year
does wonderful things to a
By comparison, buying and
holding the DJI-30 from 1965 to 2007
would have only increased the value of the original $100 investment to
only $1437 in 2007.
Using Peerless and only buying and then selling (no
61 of the 67 trades (91.0%) would have been profitable.
On average 1.6 trades per year. Avg. Trade's Gain = +11.2%
Peerless Averaged +17.5%/year compared with Buy and
Hold of 7%.
The Peerless gains of simply buying and selling on the reversing
major Peerless signals
are understated, in that no consideration is given the interest received while in cash.
This would probably have increased the average annual return by more than 2.5%,
making the average annual return 20%.