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   Daily Blog - Tiger Software

                            August 5, 2007

Investors, Don't Be A
      Deer in The Headlights 

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                 Send any comments or questions
                  to william_schmidt@hotmail.com

The Deer-in-the-Headlights phenomenon has been variously called a

                                         "Fear Paralysis".
                                         "Panic Attack",
                                         "Stubborn Inertia
"Experimental Neurosis",
                                          "Cognitive Denial"

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                      Animals in a laboratory sometimes curl up in a ball and may deny all stimuli
                     when events take them by total surprise.  Freud said, people sometimes are
                     in a state where they know what to do but they cannot act.  They are more
                     likely to freeze when encountering an overwhelming threat.  It's basic biology. 
                     Immobility slows their heart rate and lets them regain composure and start to
                     cope.  In some situations, this works well.  In the wild, a lion, tiger or a bear
                     is usually impelled to chase down and eat that which flees. But in the stock market,
                     doing nothing can be be very costly if a bear market is starting.

                      In therapy, making such people aware of the reality they face, the bases of their
                     irrational beliefs and the consequences of acting or not acting in accordance
                     with reality are essential first steps.  Sadly for investors, a therapist has plenty
                     of time, sometimes years, to:
                                   (1) probe the patient's psyche for the bases of their irrational belief structures;
                                   (2) repeat over and over what the pertinent reality is; and
                                   (3) show what the consequences will be of living in denial and not
                                   changing a self-destructive behavior. 

                    The stock market is not so kind.   It will not wait for a therapeutic break through.

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                       Light Bulb Humor      

                                        Q: How many Psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb?

                                         A: Only one, but the bulb has got to really WANT to change.

                                         A': None; the bulb will change itself when it is ready.


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                   Therapists do make break-through with people who have stubbornly refused to
                   change their  behavior.   They do this by clearly predicting what will happen
                   to the patient if he or she does not change. When enough of the therapist's
                   warnings (predictions) come true, the patient may finally accept reality |
                   and make the necessary changes, provided they do not have too much emotional
                   stake in their make-believe world. 

                   We hope the way our predictions have a way of coming true, will help you. 
                   Get Peerless.   It is the cheapest market  insurance you'll ever buy.
                                  An Example of A Neurotic Denial: Homebuilders

                  For a long time, the home builders acted like deers in the headlights. They
                  saw sales slow, but kept churning out homes. And even when they started
                  cutting production, they kept staffing levels up under the assumption that any
                  dip in home demand would be short-lived. Finally, some have cut staff,
                  production and prices. The median price of a house fell by 10.9% last month
                  compared to a year earlier.  This was the biggest drop in  the more than the
                  35 years that such data has been kept.

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                                                       Financial Stocks - The Canary in The Mine

       wpe1.jpg (3147 bytes)        Will the Fed bale out brokerage stocks as they did in 1987 and 1998?  wpe2.jpg (2998 bytes)
                         Housing and sub-prime defaults and bankruptcies may be just the beginning. 

                         8/3/2007   Bear Stearns is in big trouble.   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118615761924887472.html
                         "When have financial stocks ever been so over-leveraged? 
                                  (Jim Rogers, CNBC 8/7/2007)  Is a crash a "done deal?"


              Bear Stears - BSC is collapsing, way ahead of the rest of the market.  Why?
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                                             How Many Predictions Must We Make That Come True,
                                      before You Will Buy Our Peerless Stock Market Timing?

                When the stock market falls like it has since our July 17th major sell, most investors covered their
         eyes and refused to even listen for an alarm, much less assist in the lowering of life boats. Our site has
         posted  numerous public warnings since June.  We are normally very bullish.  But the signs of big trouble
         began to be too obvious to ignore and not pass on.

                    June 18, 2007 - Global Boom or Bubble?

June 19, 2007 - Big Declines in Years Ending in "7".
"Going back 120 years, the average DJI-30 decline
                                             at some point in a year ending in '7' is 23%!"

June 22, 2007 - Summer Rally?
here is a 68% probability of at least a 10% correction
                                                              by the end of October this year.. A top in July is the most
                                                              likely scenario."

June 28, 2007 -   What Will Housing Stocks Do in A
                                      Weak Market?  They Are Collapsing in A Bull Market.

July 2, 2007 - Where Are The US High Tech Jobs Going?

                 July 12, 2007 - US Dollar's Decline Is Getting Serious

                      July 17, 2007 - Peerless Major Sell Warns of Impending Correction (if we are lucky)
                                              or bear market
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