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         Daily Blog - Tiger Software

             Standards for Breakout Buying:
                     Silver's SSRI

                              ....................................
      Bush's Policies Threaten The US Dollar and
    The Savings of Millions on Fixed Incomes.


                                October 28, 2007
                                Updated 11/6/2007

    
William Schmidt,     - Tiger Software's Creator
      (C) 2007 William Schmidt, Ph. D.  - All Rights Reserved. 

      No reproductions of this blog or quoting from it
      without explicit written consent by its author is permitted.

     
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      to william_schmidt@hotmail.com

     
                                             TigerSoft's Qualifying Standards
                                     for Breakout Buying:
                             A Case Case Study:  Silver's SSRI


                      All breakouts are by no means equal.  But those that take prices above a series of
                 highs, arranged so that a flat line can be drawn through more than a half dozen of them, are
                 much more likely  to produce excellent gains.  Sometimes, prices need to go past a round
                 number to achieve a breakout that everyone will accept.  If the breakout moves the stock
                 up into all-time high territory, so much the better.  And breakouts that show lots of bulging
                 blue Accumulation and have a rising OBV Line are apt to be the best performers. We
                 want the stocks we buy to be relative strength leaders, not laggards.   These are some of
                 the main techincial standards we apply when considering buying a breakout.

                     If we consider fundamentals, breakouts should be in industries that are strong and in stocks
                 that have a history of upside volatility when earlier breakouts occurred.

                     Let's consider each of these points in connection with SSRI which is expected to breakout
                 above $40 on Monday, October 29th, as a result of surging gold and silver prices, occasioned
                 by Bush's threatening war on Iran and the Fed's policy of printong millions more paper dollars
                 to bail out banks and the home financing industries.   

                    1) The SSRI chart fot the last year shows 9 separate tests of the Blue resistance line.   It is
                 not perfectly horizontal, but close enough.  It is on the verge of making a move past the
                 the significant round number 40.

                    2) The Tiger Accumulation Index is now up to the first dotted line above 0.  This is a
                 helpful qualier.

                   3.) The OBV Line is lagging.  This is not a necessary condition for buying if enough other
                 qualifying characteristics are present.

                   4) The Tiger Intermediate Term Relative Strength Indicator is almost up to the +.30 level.
                  This is very positive.  The stock has handily outperformed the DJI over the last 50 trading days,

                   5. It is safe to buy the stock at the Opening.  Fades after the opening are not noteworthy.
                   That is a bullish consideration, too.

                   See Follow Up - November 6, 2007

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               6.   It is in the hot metals group. See our earlier Blogs.  Look at September 13th, 2007: "The Coming
           Dollar Collapse"  http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/9-13-2007/index.htm   Silver ofter comes on
           strongly after gold has been on a rampage, provided there is no recession.  Silver has a history of
           rising very sharply.   See my research dated 11/29/2005 -   http://tigersoft.com/silver_stocks/index.html   
          Silver shot up from 6.50/ounce in mid 1979 to $40/ounce in early 1980.  Overseas at this moment it
          is $14.39, up .21 from Friday's close in NY.   See  http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html   

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                   Our TigerSoft chart for Silver shows that the metal itself still needs to surpass resistance from
           $14.50 - $14.60 an ounce.   But it is on a strong BUY, using the criteria for evaluating a TigerSoft
           commodity chart, disccused recently in my Blog - http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/10-7-2007/index.htm  

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                   Gold and now Silver stocks are booming.  Look below at the chart of the Gold Stock Index - XAU. 
          I have been saying for months a powerful breakout over $160 would soon take place.  My reasoning
          has been set out here many times.   One thing I will add is that it was getting to easy trading the
          short-term swings of the XAU.   The same approach had been averaging 75% to 115% per year
          since 2005.   Short term traders are allowed to scalp only so long.  Then a bigger move starts..
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                    The rise in Gold and Silver is very bad bews for those on fixed incomes and those relying
              on income from a CD or a savings account.  Gold goes up when the dollar goes down and vice versa.
              Now the Dollar is dropping faster and faster.  Speculators are now selling it short.   The problem,
             of course is that Bush has saddled America with two trillion dollars of debt to pay for his blunder,
             the Iraq War.   Until the US occupation ends there, billions and billions more debt is created.  
                   Watch the Dollar's slide in the day's ahead. It is a the point of breaking below the lower support
             line in its downward price channel.  This means the decline of the dollar will accelerate. 

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                      Beyond what I've written, here's a good summary of why the dollar is in serious decline.
                         10/29/2007        http://www.boloji.com/rt3/rt287.htm        
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US debt could trigger dollar collapse,
UN warns...  

   http://pressesc.com/01180629622_dollar_falls

The United States dollar is facing imminent collapse in the face of an unsustainable debt, the United Nations warned today.

United States debt, which had now deepened to well over $3 trillion, might turn out to be unsustainable in the rest of 2007 or next, putting further downward pressure on the United States dollar, Rob Vos, the Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), told correspondents at a Headquarters press conference.

He pointed out that since its peak in 2002, the dollar had depreciated vis--vis the major currencies by some 35 per cent and by 25 per cent against a broader range of other currencies.

Vos made these comments at the launch of the 2007 World Economic Situation and Prospects report midyear update.

With that increased debt the risk of a sharp depreciation of the dollar continued, he warned. If countries willing to invest in United States dollar assets expected further depreciation, they might be less willing to hold dollar assets, triggering a much sharper fall in the United States dollar. The risk of disorderly adjustment and the steep fall of the dollar existed. The policy challenge was how to prevent a hard landing of the United States dollar and forge a benign adjustment of the global imbalance.

In terms of the United States housing sector, he noted that a recession in the housing sector had continued in 2007, with a slowdown in activity and a large number of unsold homes. While house prices had not fallen, that might happen in the months and years to come if the recession continued as expected. A decline in prices would affect the domestic market, particularly household consumption in the United States, resulting in the risk of a serious recession in its economy, slowing growth from 2.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent in 2007 and 2008. That would then significantly slow the world economy and transmit the recession into the rest of the world.

The United States deficit had increased to $860 billion at the end of 2006, and was expected to fall to $800 billion in 2007. That deficit was basically being financed by surpluses in the developing and oil exporting countries, as well as some major developed countries, in particular Japan and Germany. The European Union,at large, was projected to continue to have a slight deficit on its current account.

Continuing, he said the current tendency in macroeconomic policy was not all in the right direction, particularly in the surplus countries where there had been a tightening of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly in Germany and Japan, making it more difficult for the United States to lower its external deficits by export growth. The United States would also need to adopt some contractionary policies to slow down its deficit, he recommended.

         There is a very real danger that those countries who intensely dislike
     Bush's Doctrine of Unilateral Pre-Emptive Warfar instead of Diplomacy
     will choose to stop Bush by dumping the dollar.

        
On Feb. 10, at the 43rd Munich Security Conference, Putin told the world's assembled political leaders
      that the United States was trying to establish a "uni-polar world," which he defined as "one single center of
      power, one single center of force and one single master."  This goal, Putin said, was a "formula for disaster."
      "The United States," Putin said, truthfully, "has overstepped its borders in all spheres" and "has imposed itself
      on other states."  The Russian leader declared, "We see no kind of restraint — a hyper-inflated use of force."
      To avoid catastrophe, Putin said a reconsideration of the entire existing architecture of global security was
      necessary....The United States, Putin said, has gone "from one conflict to another without achieving a full-fledged
      solution to any of them."  n his 2006 state of the nation speech, Putin noted that America's military budget is 25 times
      larger than Russia's. He compared the Bush regime to a wolf who eats whomever he wants without listening.

          Below are the comments of   Paul Craig Roberts. He served as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury
      in the Reagan Administration  He served as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration
     earning fame as the "Father of Reaganomics". He is a former editor and columnist for the Wall Street Journal,
     Business Week, and Scripps Howard News Service. He is a graduate of the Georgia Institute of Technology and
     he holds a Ph.D. from the University of Virginia  . (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Craig_Roberts )

     wpe1B.jpg (3301 bytes)      "The solution is nonmilitary challenge.
          "The Bush regime's ability to wage war is dependent upon foreign financing. The regime's wars are financed
       with red ink, which means the hundreds of billions of dollars must be borrowed. As American consumers are
      spending more than they earn on consumption, the money cannot be borrowed from Americans.  The United
      States is totally dependent upon foreigners to finance its budget and trade deficits. By financing these deficits,
      foreign governments are complicit in the Bush regime's military aggressions and war crimes. The Bush regime's
      two largest lenders are China and Japan. It is ironic that Japan, the only nation to experience nuclear attack
      by the United States, is banker to the Bush regime as it prepares a possible nuclear attack on Iran.   If the rest of the
      world would simply stop purchasing U.S. Treasuries, and instead dump their surplus dollars into the foreign exchange
      market, the Bush regime would be overwhelmed with economic crisis and unable to wage war. The arrogant hubris
      associated with the "sole superpower" myth would burst like the bubble it is.
         "The collapse of the dollar would also end the U.S. government's ability to subvert other countries by
      purchasing their leaders to do America's will.    The demise of the U.S. dollar is only a question of time. It would
     save the world from war and devastation if the dollar is brought to its demise before the Bush regime launches its
     planned attack on Iran."
    (Source:
    
http://www.creators.com/opinion/paul-craig-roberts/the-world-can-halt-bush-s-crimes-by-dumping-the-dollar.html )


               What If OPEC Did Not Require Dollars To Buy Their Oil

         
One of the reasons everybody has to have dollars is that the OPEC oil producting countries only accept
         dollars for oil.  Iran is challenging that.  Other OPEC countries will almost certainly discontinue this
         requirement if the Dollar continues to weaken, as seems very likely.  On 7/23/2007 I wrote:
                 
                     There is a "bigger danger is that oil producing countries may stop accepting dollars for payment, because
            the dollar becomes too weak.  Iran announced this April that they would accept only Euros or Yen.  The US
            has a current net
-$862,300,000,000.00  in its international trades of goods and services. When OPEC
            was formed, all the OPEC countries agreed that they would only sell oil for dollars and dollar
            denominated securities. In other words, if you wanted to buy oil from an OPEC country, you had to
            buy dollars first.   This created a ready demand for dollars.  And OPEC countries tended to invest
            much of the "petro dollar wealth" back in the US.  The run-up in oil prices since 2002 thus actually
            boosted the US stock market and its economy.  If OPEC changed their rules and allowed other
            countries to buy in another currency, it would mean far higher interest rates and hyper-inflation in the US.
                     (  
http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/7-23-2007/index.htm )


     

                  ( http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/7-23-2007/index.htm )

                 Hyperinflation is inevitable
       Superb expansions of this scary scenario appears at
                   http://www.newstarget.com/019659.html    

                http://blogs.salon.com/0002007/2004/03/17.html   
                http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2007/10/08/071008ta_talk_surowiecki    
                http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/587  

                   

 

 
                                     
                        



                      

        
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