TIGERSOFT and 21-Day Pct Change
(c) 2013 www.tigersoft.com All rights strictly reserve
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Since there are about 21 trading days in a calendar month,
using 21-day periods let's us not over-weight any part of a month,
so that we can get results which can compared be over time.
"First out of The Gate"
A month after the bull market started in mid August 1982, we ran
the Power Ranker to see which stocks were the first to "move out
of the gate". This strategy works well when the stock market begins
a new bull market. You can see this is the 5 runs below:.
9/16/1982, 2/13/1989, 4/15/2003, 3/14/1995, and 4/9/2009.
The universes consisted mostly of stocks that were either SP-500 stocks
or became them a little later. A few other stocks may have been included
by chance. Left out were gold and silver stocks, which run counter to
the general markets.
Buying the
"first-out-of-the-gate" stocks is not a perfect approach.
But none are and there clearly is an increasingly profitable pattern here
in how these stocks outperform the weaker stocks.
First-Out-Of-The-Gate Buying Works Well
at Start of The Last
Five Bull Markets.
Avg.Subsequent
Avg.Subsequent
Gain
of
Gain
of
10
Stocks
5
Stocks Up The Least
Up
Most in First in
First 21-Trading Days
21-Trading
Days of of Bull Market
a
Bull Market
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9/16/1982 +26.0%
11.3%
in subsequent 65 trading days
2/13/1989 +42.0%
22.2%
in subsequent 130 trading days
3/14/1995 +47.0%
9.2%
in subsequent 130 trading days
4/15/2003 +31.8%
4.8%
in subsequent 130 trading days
4/9/2009. +84.6%
0.7%
in subsequent 130 trading days
Details:
9/16/1982 FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE 9/ 16/ 82 Pct change is based on 21 trading days Subsequent Pct change is based on 65 trading days Sample size = 237 in C:\001-1982 -------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 SEE 1.688 46.9 2.6
2 PKI 5.813 43 25.8
3 HES 7.957 40.4 16.2
4 KLAC .969 38.8 52.6
5 LTD .596 38.6 57.3
6 L 1.314 37.7 14.1
7 LOW .431 37.2 50.1
8 BMS 1.047 36.1 2.9
9 MWV 4.843 34.7 .7
10 THC 5.365 34.1 37.9
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Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 26.0%
233 EXC 7.75 -3.8 8.1
234 AEE 12.37 -3.9 7
235 TAP 5.53 -4.3 14
236 TSO 7.81 -5.3 16.8
237 NU 10.62 -5.7 10.5
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Smallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 11.3%
|
2/13/1989 FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE 2/ 13/ 1989 Pct change is based on 21 trading days Subsequent Pct change is based on 130 trading days Sample size = 271 in C:\001-1989 -------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 VLO 2.717 19.2 39.1
2 PGR .746 16.2 34
3 CTL 7.061 15.8 20.5
4 NKE 1.914 15.5 57.5
5 SYK .979 14.5 29.2
6 FMC 9.865 14 27
7 KR 2.375 13.5 86.8
8 STJ 1.897 13.4 75.9
9 WAG 2.336 13.2 27.4
10 CINF 5.561 13 22.5
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Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 42.0%
267 TAP 9.375 -6.9 25.3
268 HRL 2.563 -9.5 36.5
269 NBL 5.5 -10.2 30.5
270 CAT 7.469 -11.6 4.8
271 AAPL 9.25 -14.5 14.1
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Smallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 22.2%
|
3/14/1995 FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE 3/ 14/ 95 Pct change is based on 21 trading days Subsequent Pct change is based on 130 trading days Sample size = 290 in C:\001-1995 -------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 PRST 14.312 23.1 93
2 HRB 10.688 18.3 -12.3
3 AMAT 3.273 17.6 92.9
4 NEM 40.12 17.1 11.7
5 TXN 5.695 17 70.6
6 MSFT 4.484 15.7 28.1
7 ADBE 4.625 15.5 37.1
8 TER 10.313 15.3 84.1
9 NOC 24.06 14.5 29.3
10 HPQ 12.084 14.2 35.7
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Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 47.0%
286 GPS 4.629 -9.5 13.2
287 WDC 7.25 -12.1 21.4
288 JWN 9.375 -13.4 8
289 LOW 4.125 -13.8 -1.3
290 AAPL 8.75 -20.1 4.8
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Smallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 9.2%
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4/15/2003 FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE
5/ 12/ 2003
Pct change is based on 21 trading days
Subsequent Pct change is based on 130 trading days
Sample size = 319 in C:\001-2003
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Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 FLS 17.74 44.6 16.2
2 CMS 6.45 37.5 21.1
3 GT 6.72 37 .6
4 NSM 11.495 35.5 85.2
5 MEE 12.79 33.2 5.9
6 CIG 2.669 32.7 22.9
7 WMB 7 32.1 30
8 HUM 11.91 30.9 77.6
9 CB 30.305 30.8 6.8
10 PKI 11.43 29.6 51.2
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Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 31.8%
315 TNX 36.39 -7.5 17.3
316 CLX 42.32 -8.8 11.2
317 O_1620 169.5 -8.9 -14.5
318 AVY 53.28 -9.2 -4.3
319 SLE 15.091 -10.4 14.1
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mallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 4.8%
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4/9/2009.FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE
4/ 9/ 9
Pct change is based on 21 trading days
Subsequent Pct change is based on 130 trading days
Sample size = 334 in C:\001-2009
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Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 TXT 13.56 184.2 47.9
2 FAS 24.194 116.7 115.5
3 F 4.24 116.3 80.7
4 BAC 9.55 93.7 94.6
5 JCI 16.68 92.2 61.5
6 GCI 3.75 88.4 259.5
7 EK 4.31 86.5 4.5
8 AFL 24.95 83.1 83.9
9 BOOM 11.44 80.2 75.9
10 FO 35.81 78.4 21.6
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Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 84.6%
330 MKC 28.96 -4.6 16.9
331 ADM 25.85 -5.9 15.7
332 HRB 15.58 -14.3 27.1
333 DOG 70.99 -15.4 -22.4
334 EWV 73.35 -31.4 -33.6
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Smallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 0.7%
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In the days of Floppy Disks we could only rank a small
number of stocks, but it is instructive to see what we came up
with back then.
Below are the fastest out-of the-gate stocks from a universe of
SP-500 stocks, based on their price change between 8/16/1982 and 9/15/82
followed by their prices at the end of 1982. This study demonstrates
the leaders are more likely to continue to lead. The worst of the
laggards tend to perform less well. Of course, there are other considerations,
but using a 21-day period at the start of a bullish trend is a good first
step.
Case 1
Performance over 21 days of Stocks from
Universe of 234 (Now in SP-500) Leading the Advance
at Start of 1982
Bull Market
Pct Change Symbol 9/16/1982
12/31/1982 Pct.Change
----------- -------- -----------
------------ ------------
TOP 10
45.8% SEE
1.69
1.77
+ 4.7%
45.8% LOW
0.43
0.65
+51.2%
43.7% HES
7.96
8.33
+4.6%
41.4% AMD
4.90
6.28
+28.2%
41.2% SYK
0.29
0.31
+6.9%
40.0% AAPL
2.28
3.73
+63.6%
39.9% NKE
0.66
0.71
+7.6%
39.9% LEN
1.00
1.78
+78.0%
39.6% L
1.31 1.59
+21.3%
39.5% KLAC
.970
1.63
+68.0%
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Avg = 33.4%
BOTTOM 5
-22.6% HAS
.40
0.64
+60.0%
-10.3% DHR
.08
0.08
+ 0.0%
-4.6% TSO
7.81
8.44
+ 8.1%
-2.8% TAP
5.53
6.13
+10.8%
-1.8% BK
1.75
2.07
+18.3%
.............................................................................................
Avg = 19.4%
Case 2 1989
Case 3
FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE
4/ 15/ 3
Pct change is based on 21 trading days
Subsequent Pct change is based on 130 trading days
Sample size = 319 in C:\001-2003
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Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 CMS 5.47 46.6 41.9
2 AYE 7.65 44.6 31.9
3 AMD 7.6 30.7 85.7
4 WMB 5.39 29.5 86.4
5 CIG 2.198 23.7 53.5
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59.9%
6 WDC 9.27 21.7 45.1
7 CNP 7.6 20.7 24.5
8 GT 4.9 20.3 38
9 JPM 26.87 19.1 36.1
10 F 8.35 16.1 48.3
.............----------------------------------------------------------
Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 38.4%
315 AAPL 6.695 -10.8 73.3
316 THC 15.3 -11.1 2.0
317 SWK 22.18 -12.9 39.3
318 TXT 14.795 -14.8 59.1
319 JCP 16.68 -19.6 49.7
.............----------------------------------------------------------
Smallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 44.68
Case 4
FIRST-OUT-OF-THE-GATE
4/ 9/ 9
Pct change is based on 21 trading days
Subsequent Pct change is based on 130 trading days
Sample size = 520 in C:\09-a
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Rank Stock Price % Change % Subsequently
1 AERT .51 325.0 -37
2 ATSG .77 266.6 332.5
3 AXL 1.6 255.6 316.2
4 ARM 1.2 224.2 646.6
5 ALY 2.33 219.2 102.6
6 ABCW 1.47 206.3 -27.3
7 AI 7.2 200.0 72.1
8 ACAS 2.5 197.5 32.4
9 AEA 2.6 195.5 137.2
10 ABG 5.8 188.5 144.5
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Biggest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 175.3
516 ABII 45.4 -17.1 -15.8
517 AMTC 1.3 -18.7 -19.3
518 ACOR 18.45 -25.9 -9.3
519 ARNA 2.48 -50.9 67.3
X 520 ARUR .015 -81.3 300.0
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Smallest Gainers' Avg. Subseq. Gain = 645.8
Power Ranking
"Across-The-Board-Strength"
Originally, back in 1982, we also found it useful to compare a
stock's Price Change Rank over 21 days with its OBV Pct Rank
and its IP (Accumulation) Rank. In particular, we liked to buy the very
strongest stocks showing 'Across-the-Board' strength as noted by
our Power Ranker.
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This worked well provided Peerless was on a Buy and the market was strong.
Consider the Rankings at Year End for a Sample of SP-500 Stocks
for 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987 and the price change one month later *1/30/1983).
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#1 Price Change #1 OBV Ranked #1 Intra-Day Ranked
Accross-The-Board Across-The Board
and in Top 10 for Price
12/31/1982 OMC
ADM
PSA
PSA
CMI
2.70
2.51
16.50
16.50
6.09
hit 2.89
hit 2.76 but fell 17.25
17.25
6.72
2.80
back to 2.54. 16.50
16.50
6.48
Note DJI gave Sell S12 on 1/7/1983.and
Buy on 1/24/1983
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#1 Price Change #1 OBV Ranked #1 Intra-Day Ranked
Accross-The-Board Across-The Board
and in Top 10 for Price
12/30/1983 MTB
HRB
JCI
JCI
HNZ
0.95 (breakout) 1.52
2.02
2.02
6.33
hit 1 but fell back hit 1.56 but fell hit 2.05
but fell
hit 2.05 but fell flat
6.31
to .90
back to1.46. back to 2.00
back to 2.00
Note DJI gave Sell S12 on 1/5/1984.
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#1 Price Change #1 OBV Ranked #1 Intra-Day Ranked
Accross-The-Board Across-The Board
and in Top 10 for Price
12/31/1984 TSN +46.3% L
L
BAC
NUE
1.60
2.92
2.92
4.48
1.34
hit 1.66
hit 3/56
hit 3.56
4.88
1.50
1.63
3.44
3.44
4.75
1.50
2.83 in July
4.25
in April 4.25 in April
7.10 in July
1.82 in July
wedge pattern
We found in the 1990s that it was helpful to find stocks that are up more
than 20% in a one-month period of time after they breakout from
flat topped resistance levels. We want additonally to qualify these
stocks by selecting ones with Accumulation Index bulges above +.375
and ones that have their Closing Power nad Relative Strength (RSQ)
be near to or making new highs. This works best when a new leg
up starts in a bull market. Selecting the best so-qualified stocks for
Januaries often works well.
New Breakout Highs uo 20% more in the firat 21-day after
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For example, consider as a sample, the stocks that begin with
the letter "A". Below is a list of all three of "A" stocks up more
than 20%
over the previous 21 trading days as of January 31, 2012. We only
include thise stocks whose IP21 was above +.35 over $5.00/share
AMKR 5.73 31%
54 ,39 Breakout at 5.13, Moved above 65-dma in
January 2012
This only reached 6.75 and then began a bear market falling
to 3,75.
ADGF 7.95 25%
105 .59 This reached the previous year's ressitance at 8 but had
not yet broken out. This was bought out at 10.75 in March 2012.
AAWW 47.63 23% 109 .35
Breakout at 43.21. Moved above 65-dma in January 2012.
This advanced to 52 in February but then fell back to 40 in June
before jumping to 57 in January.
We have gotten away from this
because NASDAQ stocks moves more swiftly now. In other
words 21-days is too long a time period. And because, price
patterns are more important.