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TIGER HOTLINE.. Tuesday 12/9/97
(C) 1997, Wm. Schmidt, Ph.D.

Market Statistics
DJI high = 8142.67  
DJI low =  7990.98
DJI close =8049.66 -61 vs -38.29  
ADV =1145 vs 1613 vs 1581 vs 1669
DECL=1777 vs 1366 vs 1362 vs  1274
PLURALITY=-633 vs +247 vs +219 vs 395 vs +296 
                                vs +1034 vs +770 vs +473
UP VOL =162.78 vs 246.72 vs 279.61 vs 334.99 vs 286.32
                                vs 403.34 vs  111.07
DOWN VOL.=349.18 vs 214.53 vs 324.43 vs 265.76
                                vs 265.7 vs  170.7 vs 66.15
The Hourly DJI one day delayed may be downloaded from the
TIGER BBS
==>Download the entire file Hourly DJI file (HRDJI.txt) 
                
If you have had trouble downloading DJI and NASDAQ data from
Dial Data crash Monday or Tuesday, download them from our
TIGER BBS.
Download the split-adjusted OEX from our BBS.
Elite Service subscribers, please notice: 
There is a new bullish (SPECIAL.bmp) Special situation report tonight.
There is no new bearish stock to download, as speciald.bmp - 
Peerless
------->Use MODE-3  (trading range mode) <-----
The operative PEERLESS signal remains a seasonally attenuated S9.
With the averages now up to their old highs, we need to wait and see
if there will be a breakout or a retreat from the overhead resistance.
The DJI lost 38.  The OEX and SP-500 retreated 4-6 points.
The lagging NASDAQ fell 31.  It is now down to 4x tested support
which starts at October low.
Stocks
There were 632 more down than up on the NYSE. The 10-day moving
avg. of down volume is now rising.  The 10-day ,moving. avg. of up-volume
is now falling.  I think it is best to assume that there will a further pullback
from the overhead resistance, though it should be muted by the
December bullishness.  Breadth and volume need to improve to get these 
indices past their highs. The V-Indicator stands at -1.5.  In January we 
could get an S9V - the fourth S9 in 11 month and that would be reliably 
very bearish. Pivotings down occur about every third or fourth year.
The last such turn-down was in 1994.
We still expect December to bolster the market.  But it is clear that
there is a large supply of stock as the indices approach their
highs of July and October.  I would not buy at this resistance
until there is either a breakout, a B4 or a pullback.
(If the DJI were to fall more than 3% during the last 5 weeks of
the year, it would be doing something it has only done once
before in the last 50-years, that in 1968 just before the 1969-70
bear market.)  
=====
Buy recommendations  - BSI at 49 1/8 stop. (United Bankshares)
=====
The conclusion: Generally stick with highest accumulation stocks, 
with AI/200>180.  Use some of the shorts or put recommendations
to be hedged given the 3rd S9 and tax loss selling which is apt
to continue for rest of calendar year.
=====
Tahiti Stocks 
       
JAM is the top AI stock in the DJI, IFF and AT are the top stocks
 in SP-500. 
       
Monday night's review of the 30 individual DJI stocks shows a
mildly bullish technical condition and intermediate-term outlook
for  the DJI stocks.  12 are classified as bullish, 6 are bearish.
       
I am here using
(1) price vs 30-wk ma;
(2) direction of 30-wk ma; 
(3) whether IP21 is positive or negative.
All three must be in alignment for a bullish or bearish rating.
          
Individual Stocks
- AA - gave augmented S4 (below 30-wk ma with IP21<0),
but OBV is roaring back) 
30wk ma resistance=77.67,   (65-67 is good support.)    
+ AX - above rising 30-wk ma. nearing highs of 87. 
AI/200=61.IP21>0, Very low AI score. Lots of distribution evident.
 OBV is bullish. 
- LAD - S4, at declining 50-day and 200 day ma, IP21<0     
   BA -  OBV weak.IP21>0, below flat 30wkma -  
- CAT - below rising 30-wk mvg. avg, IP21<0.   
- CHV -  IP21<0 slightly <30wk ma     (support at 77-79)
+ DD -  above flat 30-wk ma, overhead head and shoulders pattern  
              bounced up from support at 50, IP21>0. 
+ IDS -OBV is strong. IP21>0, - all-time high -  
            (note minor h&s pattern developing.)   
EKE - declining 30-wk ma, again testing lows. positive IP21. 

   GM -back >30 wk ma, IP21<0, h&s developing.    
+ GE - IP21>0, testing old highs,  - AI/200=78 (low)
    GUT - AI/200=169, above rising 30 wk ma, IP21<0. 
+  HWY - > now above 30 wk ma, IP21>0  
+  IBM -IP21>0,           AI/200=70 (very low)-  
-  IP - < rising 30 week moving average, IP21<0,  - fell back from 50day ma   
   JNJ - above 30-wk ma, IP21>0.  - resistance =65-66    
   JAM - AI/200=198. above 30wkma, IP21<0. new highs, weak OBV  
   KO - < 30-wk ma IP21>0.-1  -weak obv 
-  MMM - below rising 30-wk mvg.avg.,IP21<0   
+ MRK - above 30 wk ma, IP21>0.  - 
   MCD - >falling back from falling 30-wk ma, IP21>0     
+ MO - weak OBV, just above 30-wk ma. IP21>0  
+ PG - new high. IP21>0.  OBV lagging. breakout
   S - <30 wk. IP21>0. 
+ T - uptrending, IP21>0, AI/200=179.- extremely strong.  
+ TRV - uptrending, IP21>0., 55.625   
+ UK - <30 wk ma. IP21>0, at head & shoulders neckline.  
   UTX - falling from <30 wk ma, IP21>0, 
   XON - at 30 wk ma. IP21<0. , AI/200=168
   WMT - new high. IP21<0. S9, reversal day  

   JAM is the top AI stock in the DJI, IFF is top stock in SP-500.
Options
AX Feb-puts - 87 7/8 +1/8 (AI/200=59) as hedges
IBM Feb-puts - 110.375 -2.5 (AI/200=71) as hedges
        
Previous Short sale recommendations: Hold unless otherwise
BRKT 10.75  -1/4  (AI/200=53)    
PAIR 21.69 -1 (AI/200=57)  - heavy distribution
HPH 36.438 -1 5/8   AI/200=79 - breakdown below key support
    
FORE 17.813 -.812   AI/200=73-now above 30wk ma  but AI negative.
VVUS  20.125 -1.5  IP21 still neg.
PCOL 10.375 +1/16  AI/200=93, h&s neckline support at 10. heavy
distribution.
USS 25.938   AI/200=55 
      
Long Positions
buy TELU @30 1/2 stop) 29.5
 ===============   
Hold  
WBPR (rec@$22.-12/5/97) 21 7/8 -1/8 
BCOM (rec@$31.50-12/5/97) 33.625 + 3/8
LTD 25.25 , AI/200=200, resistance=25, in strong retail group    
with best seasonal period just ahead.
SMTC 52.125 -1.375 - look for support in zone between rising
30 wkma and 200-day ma.  AI/200=194, IP21 has just turned neg.
-->QCOM 65.125 -3.44 - protective stop of 64 7/8 triggered.
(If not used protective closing stop of 63 7/8.)
KBH 22 -.125  AI/200=186, IP21<0, great OBV
AFC 49 -.625   AI/200=190 - 50 is flat resistance. Move above
should start tradable rally.
BDY 30.375 -3/4  
CFX 28 1/8 -3/8 AI/200=196... running
      
DJI & SP-500 blue chips we hold for the long-term:

 

LONG-TERM HOLDS HOLDS
(SHORT-TERM COMMENTS)
Our Tahiti system requires us to just hold the high caps
bought because of their being the highest Accumulation stocks
in the DJI or the SP-500. 
JAM  122 7/8 -5/8    AI/200=198 - highest accumulation
                               among DJI stocks. OBV lagging.
NT  96.813 -2 1/8   AI=123/200 -at rising 30 wk ma, IP21<0 
RD  54 -.188    AI/200=154 - now above 30 wk ma, IP21<0 
CHV 78.5 -7/8  AI/200=184 - IP21<0 - support at 77-78.
IP (AI=144), 44.5  -.562 - IP21 <0 - below rising 30 wk ma
IFF (AI=200) 50.563 -1/4  AI/200=200 - highest AI stock in SP-500 
now just below rising 30 wk ma. Positive IP21
AT (AI/200=200), 39.3 +3/8  ties as highest AI/200 stock in SP-500
MMM 94.5 -1.5  AI/200=125
                
MTC (AI=139) 43.688 -1.312 AI/200=141  - just above flattened
30-wk ma.  OBV recently made new highs
Also among speculative, low priced stocks
ONC 4.375  -IP21/200=200, 4.375 needed for decisive breakout. 
very High Ip21 
IK (Interlake -4.5  -  AI=197 -intense accumulation vs steady 
selling pressure driving it below 30-wk ma.  I would hold.
  
ANNOUNCEMENTS     
   
12/9/97 NEW:
 =============
Elite service subscribers may soon download a listing of the bullish 
and bearish stocks of the day and listed back to January 1987.
You will have to do a special download of BULLISH.LST and
BEARISH.LST and examine them using any text editor.  Initially,
they won't have a listing of many past recommended stocks
because I have not been keeping such records.   
          
        
11/7/1997:
===========
PEERLESS MAJOR S12 UPDATE $75 - Track record of
all signals back-tested to 1966, when MODE1 used after S12.
Several Solutions to reported problems using TIGER:
        
(1) Problem - New spread sheet data is not available despite using
        nightly analysis.  Eliminate mutual funds from this directory.
        If this still doesn't solve problem you may have really bad
        data for a stock that has not traded for some time.  Eliminate
        all stocks that have not traded recently.  The computer reports
        these just after downloading data from Dial Data.  One other
        possibility: Certain key files may not be transferred over
        to directories other than c:\stocks when NOT using Dial Data.
        Solution: Use DOS commands:
        
        Let us assume that "C:\stocks2" is your assumed stocks directory.
        Go to DOS:
        enter:
        copy c:\stocks\series10.bat c:\stocks2\*.*  + hit enter key
        copy c:\stocks\more.exe c:\stocks2\*.*   + hit enter key
        copy c:\stocks\flag97cc.exe c:\stocks\*.*  + hit enter key
        copy c:\stocks\flag97dd.exe c:\stocks\*.*  + hit enter key
        Go back to Windows and re-run the nightly analysis and then
        examine new spread sheet key values.
       
(2) Problem - Message appears that a "????.vbx" file is missing
      from your system.
     Use the PEERCOMM 8 button menu and select the BBS choice.
     Do a special download of the specified file from our BBS.
     Tell the computer the name of the file to be downloaded
     and also tell it to be sent to C:\windows\system.
(4) After using old DOS commands the stocks are listed as "0"s
      when a charting is started.
      Do a special download and request "REBUILD.exe and place 
      it in each directory you are using to hold your stocks.
      Then in DOS go to C:\stocks (or any other stocks directory
      you have set up and enter "REBUILD".  This rebuilds the
      master symbols' directory "MASTERL.txt" using a format which
      is compatible with the new WINDOWS programs and most of
      the old DOS programs.  You might want to insert the command
      REBUILD.exe in your nightly batch file if you are using old
      DOS software.
(5) Error updating long list of stocks from Dial Data
      which reads to the effect that  "can't continue - too many
      stocks have bad data."  Solution - delete discontinued symbols.
      Prevention - don't let zero-volume stocks get too numerous. 
       
8/15/97 NEW IMPORTANT
        
For Elite Service Subscribers we have provided a download for a 
"bearish special situation".  This may now be downloaded.
It may be viewed as SPECIALD.bmp after downloading.
To so at this time you will have to use a graphics image
viewer like PAINTBRUSH or ADOBE or you may first place
another TIGER/PEERLESS graph on the screen and then use the
left most pull-down menu item "File". The pick "Restore Image
(specifying name)". The enter "SPECIALD".  Do not enter
quotation marks.
If you have ideas about improvements or additions, you might want
to mail them to me or E-mail them to me at bill@tigsoft.com
Thank you for your many valuable suggestions.

 

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