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| Tiger Investment Software PO Box 9491 San Diego, CA 92169. (858) 273-5900 |
TIGER
HOTLINE.. Tuesday 12/9/97 Market Statistics DJI high = 8142.67 DJI low = 7990.98 DJI close =8049.66 -61 vs -38.29 ADV =1145 vs 1613 vs 1581 vs 1669
DECL=1777 vs 1366 vs 1362 vs 1274
PLURALITY=-633 vs +247 vs +219 vs 395 vs +296
vs +1034 vs +770 vs +473
UP VOL =162.78 vs 246.72 vs 279.61 vs 334.99 vs 286.32
vs 403.34 vs 111.07
DOWN VOL.=349.18 vs 214.53 vs 324.43 vs 265.76
vs 265.7 vs 170.7 vs 66.15
The Hourly DJI one day delayed may be downloaded from the TIGER BBS ==>Download the entire file Hourly DJI file (HRDJI.txt)
If you have had trouble downloading DJI and NASDAQ data from Dial Data crash Monday or Tuesday, download them from our TIGER BBS. Download the split-adjusted OEX from our BBS. Elite Service subscribers, please notice: There is a new bullish (SPECIAL.bmp) Special situation report tonight. There is no new bearish stock to download, as speciald.bmp - Peerless ------->Use MODE-3 (trading range mode) <----- The operative PEERLESS signal remains a seasonally attenuated S9. With the averages now up to their old highs, we need to wait and see if there will be a breakout or a retreat from the overhead resistance. The DJI lost 38. The OEX and SP-500 retreated 4-6 points. The lagging NASDAQ fell 31. It is now down to 4x tested support which starts at October low. Stocks There were 632 more down than up on the NYSE. The 10-day moving avg. of down volume is now rising. The 10-day ,moving. avg. of up-volume is now falling. I think it is best to assume that there will a further pullback from the overhead resistance, though it should be muted by the December bullishness. Breadth and volume need to improve to get these indices past their highs. The V-Indicator stands at -1.5. In January we could get an S9V - the fourth S9 in 11 month and that would be reliably very bearish. Pivotings down occur about every third or fourth year. The last such turn-down was in 1994. We still expect December to bolster the market. But it is clear that there is a large supply of stock as the indices approach their highs of July and October. I would not buy at this resistance until there is either a breakout, a B4 or a pullback. (If the DJI were to fall more than 3% during the last 5 weeks of the year, it would be doing something it has only done once before in the last 50-years, that in 1968 just before the 1969-70 bear market.) ===== Buy recommendations - BSI at 49 1/8 stop. (United Bankshares) ===== The conclusion: Generally stick with highest accumulation stocks, with AI/200>180. Use some of the shorts or put recommendations to be hedged given the 3rd S9 and tax loss selling which is apt to continue for rest of calendar year. ===== Tahiti Stocks
JAM is the top AI stock in the DJI, IFF and AT are the top stocks
in SP-500.
Monday night's review of the 30 individual DJI stocks shows a
mildly bullish technical condition and intermediate-term outlook
for the DJI stocks. 12 are classified as bullish, 6 are bearish.
I am here using
(1) price vs 30-wk ma;
(2) direction of 30-wk ma;
(3) whether IP21 is positive or negative.
All three must be in alignment for a bullish or bearish rating.
Individual Stocks - AA - gave augmented S4 (below 30-wk ma with IP21<0), but OBV is roaring back) 30wk ma resistance=77.67, (65-67 is good support.) + AX - above rising 30-wk ma. nearing highs of 87. AI/200=61.IP21>0, Very low AI score. Lots of distribution evident. OBV is bullish. - LAD - S4, at declining 50-day and 200 day ma, IP21<0
BA - OBV weak.IP21>0, below flat 30wkma -
- CAT - below rising 30-wk mvg. avg, IP21<0.
- CHV - IP21<0 slightly <30wk ma (support at 77-79)
+ DD - above flat 30-wk ma, overhead head and shoulders pattern
bounced up from support at 50, IP21>0.
+ IDS -OBV is strong. IP21>0, - all-time high -
(note minor h&s pattern developing.)
EKE - declining 30-wk ma, again testing lows. positive IP21.
GM -back >30 wk ma, IP21<0, h&s developing.
+ GE - IP21>0, testing old highs, - AI/200=78 (low)
GUT - AI/200=169, above rising 30 wk ma, IP21<0.
+ HWY - > now above 30 wk ma, IP21>0
+ IBM -IP21>0, AI/200=70 (very low)-
- IP - < rising 30 week moving average, IP21<0, - fell back from 50day ma
JNJ - above 30-wk ma, IP21>0. - resistance =65-66
JAM - AI/200=198. above 30wkma, IP21<0. new highs, weak OBV
KO - < 30-wk ma IP21>0.-1 -weak obv
- MMM - below rising 30-wk mvg.avg.,IP21<0
+ MRK - above 30 wk ma, IP21>0. -
MCD - >falling back from falling 30-wk ma, IP21>0
+ MO - weak OBV, just above 30-wk ma. IP21>0
+ PG - new high. IP21>0. OBV lagging. breakout
S - <30 wk. IP21>0.
+ T - uptrending, IP21>0, AI/200=179.- extremely strong.
+ TRV - uptrending, IP21>0., 55.625
+ UK - <30 wk ma. IP21>0, at head & shoulders neckline.
UTX - falling from <30 wk ma, IP21>0,
XON - at 30 wk ma. IP21<0. , AI/200=168
WMT - new high. IP21<0. S9, reversal day
JAM is the top AI stock in the DJI, IFF is top stock in SP-500.
Options AX Feb-puts - 87 7/8 +1/8 (AI/200=59) as hedges
IBM Feb-puts - 110.375 -2.5 (AI/200=71) as hedges
Previous Short sale recommendations: Hold unless otherwise BRKT 10.75 -1/4 (AI/200=53)
PAIR 21.69 -1 (AI/200=57) - heavy distribution
HPH 36.438 -1 5/8 AI/200=79 - breakdown below key support
FORE 17.813 -.812 AI/200=73-now above 30wk ma but AI negative.
VVUS 20.125 -1.5 IP21 still neg.
PCOL 10.375 +1/16 AI/200=93, h&s neckline support at 10. heavy
distribution.
USS 25.938 AI/200=55
Long Positions buy TELU @30 1/2 stop) 29.5 =============== Hold WBPR (rec@$22.-12/5/97) 21 7/8 -1/8 BCOM (rec@$31.50-12/5/97) 33.625 + 3/8 LTD 25.25 , AI/200=200, resistance=25, in strong retail group with best seasonal period just ahead. SMTC 52.125 -1.375 - look for support in zone between rising
30 wkma and 200-day ma. AI/200=194, IP21 has just turned neg.
-->QCOM 65.125 -3.44 - protective stop of 64 7/8 triggered.
(If not used protective closing stop of 63 7/8.)
KBH 22 -.125 AI/200=186, IP21<0, great OBV
AFC 49 -.625 AI/200=190 - 50 is flat resistance. Move above
should start tradable rally.
BDY 30.375 -3/4
CFX 28 1/8 -3/8 AI/200=196... running
DJI & SP-500 blue chips we hold for the long-term:
LONG-TERM HOLDS HOLDS (SHORT-TERM COMMENTS) Our Tahiti system requires us to just hold the high caps bought because of their being the highest Accumulation stocks in the DJI or the SP-500. JAM 122 7/8 -5/8 AI/200=198 - highest accumulation
among DJI stocks. OBV lagging.
NT 96.813 -2 1/8 AI=123/200 -at rising 30 wk ma, IP21<0
RD 54 -.188 AI/200=154 - now above 30 wk ma, IP21<0
CHV 78.5 -7/8 AI/200=184 - IP21<0 - support at 77-78.
IP (AI=144), 44.5 -.562 - IP21 <0 - below rising 30 wk ma
IFF (AI=200) 50.563 -1/4 AI/200=200 - highest AI stock in SP-500
now just below rising 30 wk ma. Positive IP21
AT (AI/200=200), 39.3 +3/8 ties as highest AI/200 stock in SP-500
MMM 94.5 -1.5 AI/200=125
MTC (AI=139) 43.688 -1.312 AI/200=141 - just above flattened 30-wk ma. OBV recently made new highs Also among speculative, low priced stocks ONC 4.375 -IP21/200=200, 4.375 needed for decisive breakout. very High Ip21 IK (Interlake -4.5 - AI=197 -intense accumulation vs steady selling pressure driving it below 30-wk ma. I would hold. ANNOUNCEMENTS 12/9/97 NEW:
=============
Elite service subscribers may soon download a listing of the bullish
and bearish stocks of the day and listed back to January 1987.
You will have to do a special download of BULLISH.LST and
BEARISH.LST and examine them using any text editor. Initially,
they won't have a listing of many past recommended stocks
because I have not been keeping such records.
11/7/1997: =========== PEERLESS MAJOR S12 UPDATE $75 - Track record of all signals back-tested to 1966, when MODE1 used after S12. Several Solutions to reported problems using TIGER:
(1) Problem - New spread sheet data is not available despite using
nightly analysis. Eliminate mutual funds from this directory.
If this still doesn't solve problem you may have really bad
data for a stock that has not traded for some time. Eliminate
all stocks that have not traded recently. The computer reports
these just after downloading data from Dial Data. One other
possibility: Certain key files may not be transferred over
to directories other than c:\stocks when NOT using Dial Data.
Solution: Use DOS commands:
Let us assume that "C:\stocks2" is your assumed stocks directory.
Go to DOS:
enter:
copy c:\stocks\series10.bat c:\stocks2\*.* + hit enter key
copy c:\stocks\more.exe c:\stocks2\*.* + hit enter key
copy c:\stocks\flag97cc.exe c:\stocks\*.* + hit enter key
copy c:\stocks\flag97dd.exe c:\stocks\*.* + hit enter key
Go back to Windows and re-run the nightly analysis and then
examine new spread sheet key values.
(2) Problem - Message appears that a "????.vbx" file is missing
from your system.
Use the PEERCOMM 8 button menu and select the BBS choice.
Do a special download of the specified file from our BBS.
Tell the computer the name of the file to be downloaded
and also tell it to be sent to C:\windows\system.
(4) After using old DOS commands the stocks are listed as "0"s
when a charting is started.
Do a special download and request "REBUILD.exe and place
it in each directory you are using to hold your stocks.
Then in DOS go to C:\stocks (or any other stocks directory
you have set up and enter "REBUILD". This rebuilds the
master symbols' directory "MASTERL.txt" using a format which
is compatible with the new WINDOWS programs and most of
the old DOS programs. You might want to insert the command
REBUILD.exe in your nightly batch file if you are using old
DOS software.
(5) Error updating long list of stocks from Dial Data
which reads to the effect that "can't continue - too many
stocks have bad data." Solution - delete discontinued symbols.
Prevention - don't let zero-volume stocks get too numerous.
8/15/97 NEW IMPORTANT
For Elite Service Subscribers we have provided a download for a "bearish special situation". This may now be downloaded. It may be viewed as SPECIALD.bmp after downloading. To so at this time you will have to use a graphics image viewer like PAINTBRUSH or ADOBE or you may first place another TIGER/PEERLESS graph on the screen and then use the left most pull-down menu item "File". The pick "Restore Image (specifying name)". The enter "SPECIALD". Do not enter quotation marks. If you have ideas about improvements or additions, you might want to mail them to me or E-mail them to me at bill@tigsoft.com Thank you for your many valuable suggestions.
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3-20-98