8/29/2007 -
Staffing Companies' Stocks As
Predictors of The US
Stock Market
When companies slow down or stop hiring, it shows that they are not confident of
of the business outlook. Historically, many of the staffing companies top out months
or even a year ahead of a big general market turn down.
A new 12-month price low by our Tiger Staffing Stocks' Index would certainly suggest
an important top has been already reached this year. Until then, there is a chance
for a recovery later this Autumn. A general market decline in about a year to
a year
and
half might then be predicted, based on the pattern of many of these
stocks to top
out
ahead of the general market. And, in fact, a new Administration is
often greeted
with
a bear market. Interestngly, most of these staffing stocks do not bottom out before
the
market begins a new bull market. Turns upward in new hiring must depend upon
the
confidence a stock advance usually brings and reflects.
-------Tiger's Index of 19 staffing companies is shown
in year's chart below. -------
The index has fallen to a point just above its 12 month lows. That must be
considered
important technical support. A decline below that would mean the current decline is
most likely not an intermediate-term correction, but a bear market. The Peerless
major
Buys and Sells work well with this index. The optimized Red signals should be
watched.
It is still on a Sell.
Tiger Users Can Trade Some of These Very
Nicely!
Most Are
Over-Looked by Professional Traders.
Most of these stocks do not offer enough volatility to make them particularly attractive
speculations on growth. But their moves up do coincide with Peerless buys. So
they might
be used as a proxy for buying an intsrument to participate in a bull market.
Brokerage
stocks, however, probably serve that purpose and their down-turns better coincide with
Peerless major Sells.
I would suggest that professinal traders look at these stocks. They are mostly
over-looked. But can be very prifitably traded using Tiger's automatics Buys and
Sells.
The best for this purpose are INTN, ASGN, CCRN and MNST. A trader using Tiger's best
trading system would have gained a whopping 283.2% on INTN, 130.6% on ASGN,
120.5% on JOBS, 99.3% on KNXA and 59.5% on MNST.
INTN shows lots of Accumulation. And Tiger's best system is extremely profitable with it.
130.6% on ASGN
MNST
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Here are the stocks included in the Tiger
Index of Staffing Companies.
AHS American Hospital Supply - temporary healthcare
staffing
AHS bottomed with the US stock market
in March 2003. But it has peaked out
ahead of US stock market, which advanced until July
18th, 2007.
ASGN On Assignment Inc. - staffing in
laboratory/scientific, healthcare, and
medical financial and health information
ASGN peaked in 2000 at the same time the SP-500 did.
It bottomed at the same
time the market did in 2003. Its recovery was muted
compared to overall market
subsequently.
CITP - Comsys IT Partners, Inc. - information
technology (IT) staffing
CITP has topped out already, in April 2007.
CCRN Cross Country Healthcare Inc - healthcare
staffing
CCRN also turned tup witht he general market in
March 2003. Its recovery was
not nearly as robust as the general market.
And it has apparently topped out early
in 2007 ahead of the DJI and SP-500 by 7
months.
CDI - Engineering and
information technology outsourcing and professional staffing
CDI peaked in 1998, two years ahead of general
market. It bottomed in late 2001,
18 months before the stock market generally. It
has failed to make new highs with
the overall market. But it also has not started
a serious decline yet.
GVHR Gevity HR Inc - human
resource (HR) management solutions to small and
mid-sized businesses. The company offers payroll
administration services, such as
administrative processing, W-2 preparation and
delivery, tax processing and payment,
paid time off processing, health and welfare plan
processing, time and attendance service,
and payroll and HR-related reports services
GVHR peaked in 1998, two years ahead of US
stock market. It bottomed in
October 2001, 18 months ahead of general
market. It peaked in ealy 2006, about
18 months ahead of the general stock market..
HHGP Hudson Highland Group Inc
- Accounting and finance, legal, and IT staffing.
HHGP peaked two months ahead of US this
year. Note its big swing up.
HSII Heidrick & Struggles
International Inc - Executive search and leadership
consulting services
HSII peaked with the US markets in 2000.
It bottomed with the overall market
in the first quarter of 2003. It is still
in an uptrend. But it has not made new all-time
highs as has the DJI and SP-500.
INTN Intac
International Inc.(Hong Kong) - Educational and career development services
primarily in China
INTN is lagging the rest of the stock market by
a wide margin.
JOB General Employment -
technology, engineering, and accounting professionals.
JOB peaked in late 1997 more than two years
ahead of overall market. It bottomed
with the market early in 2003 with the world
markets. Its weak recovery ended
early in 2007, 7 months ahead of the recent
peak.
JOBS 51job Inc.
Recently peaked 2 months ahead of
US markets.
KELYA Kelley Services
- word processing and data entry, and as administrative support staff;
staff for contact centers,
technical support hotlines, and telemarketing units; substitute teachers;
support staff for seminars,
sales, and trade shows; technicians to the technology, aerospace,
and pharmaceutical industries; and
maintenance workers, material handlers, and assemblers.
KELYA peaked in 1998, 2 years
ahead of general market. It bottomed with the
overall market early in 2003.
Its recent peak coincided closely with the market's.
It seems more intereste din
bouncing back and forth as a trading vehicle for professionals
than in making a sustained trend..
KFRC
Kforce Inc. - Technology; Finance and Accounting; Health and Life Sciences; and
Government Staffing
JFRC peaked in mid 1998, two years
ahead of general market. It bottomed at the
same time in early 2003. It
is still in an uptrend, though it has not made new highs.
KNXA
applicant tracking system, which automates and streamlines the recruiting process;
and testing and
assessment solutions,
KNXA seems to have peaked with the
general market in July 2007.
LRW Labor
Ready Inc. Manual labor
LRW peaked in mid 1999
nearly a year ahead of general market. It bottomed in late 2001,
15 months before the
market as a whole did. It is not clear if it has peaked again this
year, but it does
show a double top, as it did in 1998-1999.
MAN Manpower Inc. - general employment services.
This peaked in mid 1997
more than 2 years ahead of the general market but did
not sell off in thr
2001-2003 bear market. It is now in a strong uptrend, though
it did pek recently
with the general market.
MNST
Monster Worldwide Inc - Online employment services.
MNST peaked in
2000 and bottomed in early 2003 with the general market. Its
mid 2006 peak was
a year ahead of the general market.
MPS MPS
Group Inc.- staffing and recruiting services in the disciplines of accounting,
finance, law,
engineering, and healthcare sectors
MPS peaked a month
before the SP-500 did in 2000. It bottomed 3 months before
the general market did
finally in early 2003. It seems to have reached a peak a year
ahead of the general
market.
MRN Medical
Staffing Network Holdings Inc.
MRN is lagging.
.
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