WHEN TO SELL ON WEAKNESS
     A HIGH ACCUMULATION "BUBBLE" STOCK
             THAT HAS ALREADY MOVED UP 50%
                   FROM ITS 6-MONTH LOWS


                                          by William Schmidt, Ph.D.
                                 Author of TigerSoft and Peerless
                                     (C) 2010  www.tigersoft.com


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                                     See also:  TigerSoft's  When and What To Sell 
                                      8/7/09           Red Warning Flags in Over-Extended Low-Priced Stock
                                                
7/17/2009     When to Sell Explosive Super Stocks   
                                                 7/22/2009     Apple Computer at Its 9 Previous Significant Tops. 

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                                Here we are talking about stocks that have previous shown high levels of
                           Accumulation and now have moved up more than 50% from their 6 months lows.

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                                This is a topic that we have discussed before.  It "bears" repeating
                          because the market is now up so much since the bottom and because we know
                          it is always hard psychologically to sell at a loss in a strong market, Yet that
                          is the exactly what we must do.  This is the safest way to guard your
                          investment capital. You must do that.

                                The stocks that typically are run up in a speculative market very often
                          do not have lasting power.  First they are accumulated, which we spot.
                          They they make new highs and are pumped with glowing stories and
                          by their exciting price action.   Our research shows that most such stocks
                          reach their peaks a little after a year from the first bulge of "insider buying",
                          when the Accumulation Index surpasses +.45.  But this is only a general
                          guideline

                              As sure as night follows day, at some point, most of these stocks
                          are dumped or subjected to lots of heavy-handed profit-taking...
                          unless, of course,  they found great riches in mineral wealth or
                          created something truly unique or are bought out.  Maybe a quarter
                          of the very high Accumulation stocks escape Newton's laws of
                          gravity.    Three quarters of these stocks are "piffle" stocks that have
                          their moment in the sun and then settle back, sometimes for years. 
                          If you look at long-term charts of a sample of low priced stocks, you
                          will quickly see how long they languish.  They are like 10-year locusts. 
                          You do not want to wait that long for such a stock to recover and
                          again fly high.  Many never do. 

                               So, if you're going to play with the hottest and most volatile stocks,
                          it is especially important to follow some rules to preserve capital and
                          sanity.   (We would also sugsest using these rules with high caps stocks
                          and blue chips.  But that is another subject.)

                             Remember the adage "time is money".  Bull markets like the one we are
                          in now occur for a limited time only.  If a stock is not doing well and others
                          show high Accumulation and make new highs, move your money, we would
                          advise, to the more powerful stock from the weaker one.  At the same time,
                          do not be in a hurry to sell a stock that is rising, say, 10% to  20% a month. 
                          That price action will draw hot performace money into your stock each time
                          it makes a new high.  Stocks that do not break their rising 65-day ma for
                          a long time have probably trapped lots of short sellers.  Each new high
                          will cause some of them to panic and cover on strength.  So, keep your
                          money in stocks that look and act like the "explosive super stocks" we
                          show on this website.  Buy more of the best, as long as they are not  up
                          more than 30% above their rising 65-day ma or unless they are
                          breaking out above an obvious horizontal consolidation pattern.

                             So, we must take up the subject of when to sell on weakness to insure
                         against a bigger loss and maximize net portfolio gains. 

                             Normally, general market sell signals from Peerless would allow us
                         to sell on strength.  Usually, we would be selling when Tiger's Professional
                         Closing Power breaks a long uptrend or after there is a big divergence
                         between it and apparently strong price action.  If a stock becomes
                         hyperbolic, we have also suggested simply using a French Curve to
                         draw an accelerating price support line; or using a 10-day ma for a
                         stop loss, or using a sell stop 10% below its recent highs.
                        
                            But let's say, you chose to ignore Peerless Sell signals, that you
                         do not pay attention to signs that an explosive super stock is weakening
                         internally, that you decide not to put a Sell stop in or Sell on a break
                         in an over-extended Closing Power uptrendline.  What should you do then? 

                            Here are our suggestions for when to sell on weakness thin, volatile
                         "pump and dump" bubble stocks that have already risen 50% in the
                         last six months.

                                           RULES FOR SELLING STOCKS ON WEAKNESS
                           IF THE STOCK IS UP MORE THAN 50% IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS.

                              Sell when the stock closes 2% below the 65-day ma if the Accumulation Index
                         is negative if:
                                                  the stock is up more than 200% in  6 months,
                                                  shows a head and shoulders pattern or
                                                  displays a bearish "hands above the head pattern"

                            Alternatively, Sell when the 65-day Closing Power turns down even if the
                         Accumulation Index is positive if the stock is up more than 50% in the
                         last 6 months.

                      (This revises our earlier counsel to use a 50-day ma for this purpose.)

                           Whipsaws are inevitable.  Sooner or later you will sell a stock only
                       to have it quickly turn right back up from a support level, a trendline
                       or the 30-wk ma.  See LPSN below.  If it helps keep you disciplined,
                       Sell and be prepared to buy the stock back if the stockt gets right back
                       above a rsing 65-day ma with a positive Accumulation Index and a
                       rising CLosing Power.  In the long run, using these rules will preserve
                       capital and pevent debilitating losses to your count and your psyche.

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