ORIGINAL INSTITUTIONAL STUDIES UPON REQUEST NEM example - 2/5/2008
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Daily Commentary about SSRI - Silver Standards
2008 (c) William Schmidt, Ph.D.
3/18/2008 - on Red Buy. See comments below.
The technical analysis concepts here are all described much more in our books, Help routines
and software instructions.
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Introductory Notes
Warning: The comments are made by the author, who has more than 25 years'
experience trading with these tools. But the tools and the author are not infallible.
(I wish!) So, anyone making trades based on this information must do so entirely
at their own risk and understand that the stock market is inherently risky and is often
very difficult to predict. Even insiders may lose money. I believe these comments
will help you understand better how to trade using TigerSoft tools. And I believe,
trading with them will make your investments safer and much more profitable.
The red Buy and Sell signals are based determined by the software automatically.
the computer screens the trading results from more than 60 different trading systems
and then posts the best for the last year. The best trading system often continues
for many months and even years because each stock has its own personality based
on the type of traders who buy and sell it most often. Very often professionals control
the stock's short-term swings based on the tools TigerSoft uses. To see how successfully
professionals rig these movements, use TigerSoft.
TigerSoft charts show the technical system which is most profitable for any stock
and how profitable that system is. To prevent others from copying our software, I
have taken off the charts shown here the basis of the Red Buys and Sells. The trading
results are provided. Unless otherwise stated, they include all the trades from long
and short positions, where we assume $10,000 is initially used and each trade costs
$40 in commissions and slippage. It is assumed that the trades are taken at the
close of.the day of a Red Buy or Sell signal. However, the trading results can also be
shown based on taking and closing out positions on the next day's opening after
a Red Buy or Sell. When this is true, I point this out explicitly.
Discussion of SSRI Signals - same as last night. Note Silver is back above
$20/ounce.
SSRI now has a new red buy. But unless this position represents less than 5% of your
trading capital, use TigerSoft to see how big the biggest paper loss is on the automatic
Buy signals. Usually it is about 10%. If the loss exceeded in the current paper trade, it
it is best to get out and find another stock or wait for the next Buy.
The highest paper loss this past year has been 4.2%. A loss bigger than that suggests a risky
change in the market. Our manual suggests short-term traders should get out if that takes
place. The stock itself still has support near 31. See the long-term chart and its uptrend here.
The stock is locked right in the middle of its very flat price channel for the last year. It also was
unable to surpass its price downtrendline. We should see a resolution soon, i.e. a move past its
narrowing price channel.
Since the Dollar remains very weak and people are looking for alternatives to holding the Dollar,
I would think the breakout will be on the upside. But all is not well with the US stock market.
And if the market breaks down very badly to new lows this coming week, despite Bernanke's
efforts to save his banker pals, then there may be margin calls. And the margin calls will get people
to sell the good and the bad, and precious metals may even decline. Silver is the poor man's
Gold. So, it often gets a push toward the end of the rise in Gold. It has not had a hyperbolic
advance. That would tell us the move may be over. Another aspect, is mounting talk of
a deep recession in the US. Since commercial (industrial) demand is important, that will
act as a constraint, too. Finally, I am concerned that SSRI is not doing as well as Silver (SLV),
PAAS or SLW (which made a new high today) and shows much better internals.
Silver has been moving up for months. Its current chart pattern shows two bottoms a
little above 19. If that level is closed below, we expect to see a much bigger retreat in silver
and silver stocks.
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You could read out Hotline to see more details of what we think about Silver's long advance.
Is it over? Or does a climactic finale to the advance from under $4 in 2002 lie ahead?
Order the Hotline today. It will help you profit while you learn.
Comments about SSRI and Trading Systems in Response to An Email.
When the Paper Loss Surpasses What Is Normal,
taking its biggest paper loss for the last year, it is best
to switch systems and close the trade out.
Silver had a breakout above 8. SSRI was chosen as the way to play
it along with PAAS. That was in November 2005. I have looked at
the optimal trading system's since and how well the present system
would have done, as well as the biggest paper losses in each of these years.
The 10% loss taking only long positions is with the current trade is the highest.
going back thru 2005. But in early 2004, then a Presidential Election year, SSRI fell
from 16.45 on 4/8 to 9.46 on 5/10. Taking the Buy signal using our current best system
would have meant taking a 23.3% loss. The best system used now would have yielded
a 27.2% loss for the year. So, the system must match the trading environment.
2005
I use here the chart that ends on 12/30/2005. The optimal system then was
the 14-day Stochastic-K-Line ( +113.6%). The present best system now
yielded +15.9% in 2005. The biggest paper loss for the current best system
was then 4.4%.
2006
I use here the chart that ends on 12/30/2006. The optimal system then used
the 50-day Stochastic-Pct-D (+127.6%). The present best system
now yielded -12.1%. This was clearly a markup phase. The biggest paper loss
for the current best system was 3%.
2007
I use here the chart that ends on 12/30/2007. The optimal system then was
the 20-day Stochastic-K ( +88.3%) . The present best system now yielded +76.4%.
This period saw some wild swings. The biggest paper loss for the current best system
in this period was only 2.9%.