Buy B13 (1) - Big Jump in Prices

   Volume Rises by more than 87%
   and DJI rises by more than 2.44% from
   previous day's close.

   All 9 of these Buy B13s were profitable.
   They can occur when there is a sudden policy 
   shift.  But only 2 of the 9 B13s brought a
   switching from a Peerless Sell to a Buy.

   Paper losses are very small.   The gains
   going long on these signals brought average
   gains of 10%.

   There is a second type of Buy B13.  The
   Buy B13(2) announces that a Santa Claus rally
   is due. 
DATA80.BMP (1080054 bytes)
Exclude Cases: 
  (1) when DJI was down more than 40% from its highs.
      This excludes 34 cases between 1931-1949 
   (2)in January because of distorting, artifical effect of 
      year-end buying/selling for tax reasons.

 

Date                          DJI           Gain
-------------              -----------     --------
#1
 12/18/1950                   231          +16.8% 
DJI moved up immediately.  Not a reversing Buy.
1.01    .109  108  32  .027  114   .157
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#2
 6/28/1962                    557.30       +4.8%
This was market bottom.  DJI moved up immediately. Not a reversing Buy.
 .969   -.961 -493 -192 -.181 -1828  -.31  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#3
 4 / 1 / 1968                861.25         +7.1% 
 DJI moved up immediately.  Not a reversing Buy.
1.031   .297 -7  58  -.013   2     .112 
DATA68.BMP (1080054 bytes)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#4
 8 /16/ 1971                 888.95         +1.2%
 DJI fell back 1% and then rallied.
 This B13 reversed an operative SELL. It occcured when Nixon
 announced his New Economic Plan to control inflation and
 also take the US off the Gold Standard.     
1.025   .006  -126  68  -.131  02  -.004
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#5
 4 / 22 / 1980               789.85        +20.4% 
 DJI moved up immediately.   Not a reversing Buy.
1.017   .072 18  78   .008  -3    -.084 
DATA80.BMP (1080054 bytes)    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#6
 8/17/1982                    831.24       +27.2%
 DJI moved up immediately.  Not a reversing Buy.
1.029   -.076  -66  65  -.064  -5  -.306
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#7
 12 / 18 / 1984              1211.57       +11.8%
 DJI moved up immediately.  Not a reversing Buy.
 The Sell that followed is questionable.   At the time, we ruled it 
 void because the DJI-30 rise owed to a buyout of one of its 
 components, General Foods.  
1.02   .237  11  79   .048   1     .021     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#8
 5/31/1988                   2031.12       +1.1%
 DJI moved up immediately. Given very bullish track record of this
 signal, one might have waited for second Sell.  That would have
 brought a gain of 4.9%.   Not a reversing Buy.
 1.021  -.007 -87 41  .024  -4     .018
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4 / 18 / 2001               10615.83      +6.0% 
 DJI moved up immediately and reversed an operative SELL.
1.078  .797  26  6    .12  -53    .208     
DATA01.BMP (1075254 bytes)
==========================================================
                               Number of trades =  9       
                               Avg. Gain=  10.0%