DJIA: END OF YEAR Pivots Down and Up
                      (C) 2010  William Schmidt, Ph.D.
                               www.tigersoft.com
 
  January saw 15 significant pivots downward by the DJI of more
     than 8% in the period 1915-2010, that is about once every 6.5 years.
     Peerless Major Sells occurred in all the cases since 1929,
     where the data is available for a major Sell. 5 occurred during
     a Presidential Election Year.  6 took place in the year after
     the Pres. Election. Only twice was there a pivot down two years
     after the Election. There was also only 2 cases three years after
     the Election. Pivots up in January were just as common in the
     second and third year after the Election.
Year  Yrs        Peak         Signs of Reversal       6 mo Decline
      after PE
====  ========   ========   =====================     ===============  
1916  0          1/3/1916   OBV NC, Rising Wedge
1935  3          1/7/1935   Sell S12, UB, resistance  3-mo 8%  
1941  1          1/10/1941  apex of HS right shoulder 4-mo 14%  
                            red distribution - S12
                            la/ma=1.02  P=45 IP21= -.068 V=7  OPct= .472
1953  1          1/6/1953   S8                        5.5mo 11%  
1957  1          1/2/1957   earlier S9/S12            1.5mo 9%  
1960  0          1/5/1960   S12, S9, S15              2 mo 13% 
1966  2          1/17/1966  S4, S12                   bear market starts.
1968  0          1/9/1976   S12                       2.5 mo 9% 
(1968 0          12/2/1968  S1                        bear market)
1973  1          1/11/1973  S9,S12                    bear market
1977  1          1/3/1977   S4,S8                     bear market
1984  0          1/6/1984   S12, rising wedge         4,5 mo decline - 16%
                            la/ma=1.022  P=34 IP21= -.035 V=-1  OPct= -.085  
1990  2          1/3/1990   S4, S15                   3 weeks - 10% 
                            la/ma=1.027  P=36 IP21= .08
1994  2          2/3/1994   S4                        10 weeks - 10%
2000  0          1/14/2000  S9, S4, S15               2 months - 17% 
2003  3          1/15/2003  S12                       2 months - 15% 
2004  0          2/12/2004  S9V, S15, S12             3 months - 8% 
2009  1          1/6/2009   new S12                   10 week - 27%    
                            la/ma=1.037  P=562 IP21= .028 OPct- -.006
PIVOTS UP
12/19/1918 2 yrs after Pres. Election
12/9/1975  2 yrs after Pres. Election
12/8/1976  Pres. Election
12/31/1987 3 yrs after Pres. Election
1/12/1998  2 yrs after Pres. Election
DJI1516.BMP (1920054 bytes)
DATA4041.BMP (1920054 bytes)
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DATA6869.BMP (1920054 bytes)
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